Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price continued this cycle’s rally, fulfilling CD3 Penetration Level (3673) and notching a new all-time high. Afternoon retest of high failed and price pulled back to close at POC (3660). Range was 51.50 handles on 1.304M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is some magnitude decline, with average measuring 3650, with deeper projections targeting 3640 – 3634 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3650, initially targets 3665 – 3670 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3650, initially targets 3640 – 3634 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Thanks for reading,
Polaris Trading Group
In the Tradechat Room
Small MiM into the 15:30 and then it grew negative, that was front-run by others starting at 14:45. Early. The 15:50 MOC of 1.5B to sell had the market grow a green candle which was retraced as is typical for a reversed MiM/MOC movement.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Looking toward Europe most of the western side is on the downside of the current surge. Germany is the laggard right now. Sweden has dramatically turned the tide.
Wear your masks!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – chart of the day – Platinum – Dec 2, 2020
Another commodity that we cover in our GMTT research reports is Platinum.
We called the low around 880 and gave a medium-term upside target of 1146.
Yesterday Platinum traded above 1000 for the first time since August.
Earlier this week we discussed Copper, Silver and Gold.
Copper (MAR) still needs a close below 3.30 to elect our short entry level.
Gold (FRB) confirmed the low and technically gave a buy signal with a first short term upside target at 1842.
Silver (MAR) was up over 6% yesterday, and it seems that we were just off by a day.
We hold no positions in either of them.
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|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3664.500||Opening Print: 3656.25|
|Low: 3626.00||High 3677.50|
|Volume: 220,000||Low: 3650.25|
|ES Settlement 3659.50|
|Total Volume 1.3 M|
S&P 500 Futures Recap – December 1, 2020
S&P 500 Futures: December Opens With Big Tech Buying
After trading in a 38.50 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s cash session at 3656.25, up 27.50 handles and traded down to the daily low of 3650.25 in the opening minutes before rallying higher into 9:30 CT, making a morning high of 3675.50 and then sold to the midmorning low of 3659.25 just before 10:00. For the rest of the morning, the S&Ps would range sideways to higher before breaking out of the range in the early afternoon, printing a high of 3677.50 just after 1:00.
The rest of the afternoon saw some profit taking as the ESZ would go on to trade back down to the 8:30 opening print, making an afternoon low of 3655.50 before settling at 3659.50, up 36.25 handles or +1.01%.
Total volume was a modest 1.3 million, and in terms of price action, it was all about buying the 8:45 low and then shorting the 1:15 high of the day.
Stock Market New Highs
Sometimes I wish I understood how the economics of the stock market actually worked. With all the major indices having a record month despite Covid19 cases in the US being at a record high of 4 million-plus, millions are out of work, people are losing their homes, over 250,000 children in the US have not signed back up for school, and there is only 5% to 10% occupancy in some of the major city centers, one has to wonder when is this bubble going to pop? Yesterday I was offered up to $75,000 to write a bear market newsletter predicting a crash in 2021. My role was to write the newsletter and do one video once a week predicting the upcoming decline. During the meeting, the owners of the company explained what they were looking for and then they asked me what my view of the markets was. I explained that there were a few positives like the Feds endless printing presses, the upcoming stimulus programs and the new Covid19 vaccines. On the downside, I said it was a very overextended stock market, 4+ million cases of Covid19 and Biden’s unfriendly stock market agenda.
Look, I’m not afraid to say that these are some very confusing times. Yes, there are new vaccines but that’s not going to change how scared the public is. If you had said in March when the S & P sold off 30% with less than 50,000 cases that the S&P would be up 13.4% in November with 4 million cases and 270,000 deaths no one would have believed it! The bottom line is that there is no other place to put your money than into the stock market, even if there are no jobs and record Covid19 cases.
Our view, I have called many big highs and lows during my time but right now I’m more focused on the next 30 to 50 days, Biden gets sworn in on January 20th. I am not saying there won’t be some drops but I think the pop will be larger and my guess is by next Friday the ES will be well above 3720. Our lean, I hate to say it but you have two choices; sell the open or the early rallies and buy the 10:30ish lows and look for a rip. Then come back and look to buy a late dip for the MIM trade.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.