Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Bullish price gap held back test, at which time price continued its upward trek fulfilling Cycle Objectives. Range was 29.25 handles on 1.106M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is some magnitude decline with average measuring 3769.25. Price closed strong in the upper quartile of the prior range, thus, expectation is for a continuation rally for GLOBEX and RTH sessions. As of this writing (8pm Tuesday evening) price is pushing above Prior High (3797) and approaching CD1 Penetration Level (3807.50) There are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3800, initially targets 3810 – 3818 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3797, initially targets 3785 – 3780 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Thanks for reading,
Polaris Trading Group
In the Tradechat Room
The MiM was throwing sell signs all during the early session only to surprise us with a large last-minute buy side that basically took us to zero. I assume there is still some OPEX cleanup. Prices pretty much traded sideways in a 7 point chop that if you were nimble enough could generate some change.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
We continue to see an improving picture across the US. Rising states since yesterday have gone down to just three now (a drop of two from yesterday) and the number of states that are seeing falling daily cases has improved from 38 to 46.
Taking a mid-week look at the vaccinations in Israel and the effects we see from that. They are nearing 33% vaccination rate and that is just beginning to show up in the daily new cases now.
We have a new president starting today who has boldly promised 100M vaccinations in his first 100 days. It is not clear to me if that is 100M people or 100M jabs. The current jab rate in the country is almost 800K a day, that would make the 100M jabs a reasonable goal, otherwise, we are going to have to be doing over 2M jabs per day. If we can vaccinate 100M people in 100 days that will put is where Israel is now, just 100 days later. Still a long slog ahead.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of The Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3796.25||Opening Print: 3788.25|
|Low: 3740.50||High 3797.00|
|Volume: 265,000||Low: 3772.25|
|ES Settlement 3799.00|
|Total Volume 1.2 M|
S&P 500 futures Recap – Trade Date January 19, 2021
ES Rallies Off the 2020 Closing Print To Remain Positive For The Year
After trading in a 55.75 handle extended overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s cash session at 3788.25 and traded up to the morning high of 3792.50 in the first half-hour before reversing to sell down to a daily low of 3772.25 at 10:15. From there, the S&Ps would get a lift for the rest of the morning into the noon hour touching the daily high of 3797.00 just before 1:00. The remainder of the afternoon would see a lower trade down to 3788.00 before settling at 3799.00, up 48.50 handles on a total volume of 1.26 million. In terms of price action, it was all about selling the early morning high and then buying the 10:15 low and covering at the noon high.
Biden’s Big Day
Today President Trump becomes former president Trump and Joe Biden becomes the acting president of the United States. As I said on Twitter yesterday, I hope Biden does a good job. Only time will tell. No big view today. I beat myself up pretty bad last week but made it all back yesterday. Sometimes it takes me a few times to get it right but eventually, I do get it.
Our view, yesterday was a great example of my selling the open and buying the pullback. I was thinking that with the Dow being down 3 in a row and that the longs got squeezed out on the drop and it was time to squeeze the shorts now and I don’t think that’s over yet. On the days I don’t say sell the open it drops like a rock, Murphy’s law I guess. Our lean is again for higher prices. If you’re a trend follower you want to be patient and buy the early pullback but if you are up for it and want to trade both sides of the trading card you can sell the open/early rally and buy the pullbacks. Remember, buy/sell/never fall in love with your position!
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.