Market Review
Thanksgiving week was an up week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at all-time highs. The ESZ20 bounced off both the 3630-3637s and 3645-3670s structural resistance. The ESZ20 was also closed at an all-time high last Friday, however the instrument has yet to move beyond its November 9, 2020 daily high.
Now that we are through the Thanksgiving holidays, market volume and volatility should pick back up a little. The key drivers are vaccine distribution schedules, a new coronavirus relief package, Trump’s election drama, and Cyber Monday sales results.
With little ESZ20 movement after Tuesday’s drive higher, the structural support and resistance areas have not changed much:
Resistance Areas (above):
3655-3670s
Support Areas (below):
3588-3592s
3542-3545s
3506-3518s
3428-3456s
3358-3382s
3300-3319s
3225-3243s
Below is a snap of the ESZ20 daily chart with the above support and resistance numbers marked for reference. Thanks again for reading. For more information on how DTG can help your trading, visit us at DiscoveryTradingGroup.com
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Yesterday’s end of the month MiM and MOC were big but big on both sides. There were large buy imbalances like at 14:40 we had 3B to buy and 4.7B to sell netting a total imbalance of -1.7B to sell but it was only a 61% lean to the sell-side and the symbols also only leaned to the sell-side by 59%. That paired even closer into the 14:50 lockdown at -53 dollar lean and -56.3 lean. Not the 66% we like to see which is a 2:1 bias to one side or the other. That large rotational swap of stocks for stocks took a lid off and the market rose steeply into the close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
Arghhhh.. Looking at the USA we see we are down week over week now for both daily new cases and deaths. The question is whether or not this is because we stopped counting for 4 days or if all the social modification that has been hammered into us is making a difference. We really don’t know because the call to stay home and not travel was evidently the message to test giver, takers, readers, and reporters who also stayed home. We need another week now for the dust to settle.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – chart of the day – Nat Gas – Dec 1, 2020
Nat Gas (JAN)
Today we like to discuss Nat Gas as the chart of the day.
This commodity is known for its volatility, it can move 6-10% on a day!
We had some successful trades over the year in Nat Gas, and it seems that Nat gas is close to giving a buying opportunity.
Right now it is still within a trading range, but we suggest a long position on an intraday close above 2.95.
We offer a free 14-day trial to the Global Macro Technical Report which is published three weekly.
The report covers: Global Indices, Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Soft Commodities, Currencies, and Bitcoin.
For more info and how to sign up for the free trial visit our website:
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3652.00 | Opening Print: 3628.50 |
| Low: 3602.75 | High 3632.50 |
| Volume: 220,000 | Low: 3592.25 |
| ES Settlement 3628.75 | |
| Total Volume 1.6 M |
S&P 500 Futures: Quiet November Close
After trading in a 49.25 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Monday’s cash session at 3628.50, unchanged on the day, and printed the morning high of 3631.50 in the opening minutes before reversing lower through the first hour and making the low of day of 3592.25 at 9:15 CT. From there, the ES rallied, made a higher low just after 10:30 and pushed up through the rest of the morning into the noon high printing 3615.25 around 12:30.
The afternoon low came in at 3606.75 just after 1:00 and then the futures rallied for much of the remainder of the session making an afternoon high of 3632.50 before settling the day at 3628.75, down 7.75 handles or -0.21% on solid volume of 1.6 million contracts.
In terms of price action, it was all about selling the open and then buying the first hour low and holding into the close.
Our View
First Trading Day Of December; Up 21 Of The Last 32, Down 8 of The Last 13
I had a good day trading and tried to buy the NQ and ES a few times late in the day but got knocked out and then the ES and NQ ripped in the final minutes of the day. I didn’t lose much but the NQ acted so weak I bailed. Ah… such is the life of a trader. I am not going to do a big view tonight. Despite the early drop the ES spent the rest of the day ‘trying to recover’. Why?, you ask. Well, I think it had a lot to do with the end of the month rebalance and waiting until the last seconds for the mutual and ETF funds to buy stocks and push the futures up on the close. That rip didn’t end as the ES jumped higher on Globex trading up to 3641.50, up 32.50 handles off the last day’s 3611.75 pre-close low.
Our view, over the long haul the stats are good for today but not so good over the short run. My guess, based on the price action and knowing how the mutual funds love to jam money into stocks on the last day and the first few days of the new month, I’m thinking higher prices. Anytime, and I mean anytime, the futures sell off people get short. When you add in new money going into stocks + shorts covering into the rally it makes it easy to do buy stop runs. Our lean, the daily ES pattern is to sell the early rallies and buy the 10:30 pull back and try and hold. Personally, I tend to jam myself up being short and looking to cover and go long. It’s like voting for two teams to win. So if you are like me you can just be patient and buy the dips. The average RTH ES 3-day range is 24.75 handles and the 5-day is 27.30 handles. New ES highs are not far off.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
