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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 25 MAY: ASX to edge up | US stocks stumble on Snap, data | Alvo Minerals sets the wheels in motion at Brazilian Palma Project |

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    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 25 MAY: ASX to edge up | US stocks stumble on Snap, data | Alvo Minerals sets the wheels in motion at Brazilian Palma Project |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 25 MAY: ASX to edge up | US stocks stumble on Snap, data | Alvo Minerals sets the wheels in motion at Brazilian Palma Project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

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  • Charts
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 25 MAY: ASX to edge up | US stocks stumble on Snap, data | Alvo Minerals sets the wheels in motion at Brazilian Palma Project |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

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    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

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    Danny’s View:  $1.9 Trillion In Options Expired On Friday And The Bulls Were Saved

    Danny’s View: $1.9 Trillion In Options Expired On Friday And The Bulls Were Saved

    Danny’s View:  S&P 500 Finishes Lower After Choppy Session

    Danny’s View: S&P 500 Finishes Lower After Choppy Session

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader

    Danny’s View:  Weak Retail Earnings Send The S&P And Nasdaq Down  Over 4%

    Danny’s View: Weak Retail Earnings Send The S&P And Nasdaq Down Over 4%

    Danny’s View:  ES Rallies 240 Points From The Low. How Much Gas Is In The Tank?

    Danny’s View: ES Rallies 240 Points From The Low. How Much Gas Is In The Tank?

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Home Commentary

OP: Time to Sell? May-October Historically Weak

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
May 10, 2021
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OP: Time to Sell? May-October Historically Weak
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Our View

Worst 6 Month For Stocks: May to October 

The S&P shook off last week’s selling and in x days rallied 132 points off its 4120.25 low. The bulls won and the bears lost. Straight up, I will never say the markets can’t or won’t sell-off. They eventually have to but for now, I think it’s easier and more profitable to buy the pullbacks than sell them. The economy is ‘flush’ with liquidity. Rates are still historically low and I am not even sure the markets will sell off if inflation picks up. You just cannot fight the fed or the trend. The ES makes a high, it starts to sell off over a 1 to 3 day period and could not look worse, and then in one day, the S&P regains most of its lost ground. I know, sometimes there are 6 to 9-day sell-offs but it’s the same thing over and over. There are billions of dollars that have been sidelined waiting for a 10% or 20% pullback. 

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac April, November, and December still hold the top three positions in both the Dow and the S&P. March has reclaimed the fourth spot on the S&P. Disastrous Januarys in 2008,2009, and 2016 put January into fifth place. You can divide the year into two sections and have practically all the gains in one six-month section and very little in the other with September being the worst month on both lists. According to Deepak Puri, chief investment officer, Americas, at Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, “A lot of the good news is priced in, we are overdue for a little bit of fatigue.” And according to  Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, “While investors may not choose to actually follow the adage to ‘sell in May and go away’, the next six months have historically been a more challenging time for stocks. Since 1946, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 1.6% from May through October, compared with a 6.8% average rise for the other six-month period of the year.”

Our view, 60% of the companies in the S&P earnings are up 46% compared with the last quarter of 2020. It’s hard to argue with that and earnings in Europe are very likely to show impressive results as analysts now expect to bounce back 83% in the first quarter. Of the companies in the Stoxx 600 that have reported, 74% have beat expectations. Again, I do not doubt there will be pullbacks and corrections, I just do not see any type of ‘crash’ on the horizon. Our lean, it’s 7:30 PM Sunday night and the ES just traded 4232.25. Sell the early rallies and buy any 15 to 20 handle pullbacks. Then come back around 2:30 and try to figure out the close. It’s my guess the Dow and S&P will outperform the Nasdaq today. 

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk free for 30 days.

Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME  trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS







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