Market Review
Earlier this week I sent out an email outlining a possible path of progression in the coming weeks/months to all my friends, past customers, and folks who’ve inquired about the clock. I’ve been sent back great reviews:
I LIKE, well said Wyckoff Trader!!!! All the best to you!
Thanks again WT making sure to take time to hear your own voice is great advice.
I don’t get into politics or religion. However, it was just a message as my Father (who was a thirty-year Southern Baptist Preacher and WB) might have said. My dad met Billy Graham in a white Cadillac and my mom’s brother was best friends with Adrian Rogers who was the past president of the Southern Baptist Convention. He died just after the last Deomocrate reign.
If you’d like a copy just drop me an email at trader@wyckoffamtrader.com
As I said last Friday, the clock was offline due to the time change. Yes, Monday it was all a bull run. I made videos for the whole week. I saw major selling Wednesday and talked about it in the video. Yesterday, Thursday, in the spill we sealed at the 3543 handle and did not look back.
One of the traders in the IMPRO CHAT asked me:
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:01:52 AM) : good morning today is S4H and the SPILL is down.
IMPRO: [Trader] :(9:02:11 AM) : good morning, Wyckoff_Trader
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:04:17 AM) : hay, good morning!
MIM: [Trader] :(9:05:31 AM) : hiya wycoff
MIM: [Trader] :(9:07:54 AM) : Wyckoff – support where pls?
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:13:11 AM) : 3543, 3532, 3524, 3518
Notice the timestamps at the low of day was 9:34 3542.25 handle. I call seventy-five cents great efficacy, wouldn’t you? The S4H day has the potential for the High of day to be in or at the last hour.
Shape of the day: The fourth day, is the end of the cycle. Our hope is that the AM HIGH is NOT the high of day if it’s NORMAL with the last hour high as the high of day. If not, it’s either a Wedge Zoom or Link a Stink. The Wedge Zoom has the potential for the high of day to be near the last hour. The Link a Stink does not.
That was out of the PROS and NUMBHAS before the opening bell yesterday:
Once the opening bid could get taken out from that shelf of supply of 10:05, 10:55, and 14:05 it was nothing but up. And the clock indicated that and potentially projected that from Monday of this week. The fact that it happened around the 14:30 marker just shows how the guys in the cheap seats were and who were not…
Wyckoff of the 1930s would have said it was a small area of accumulation and the Composite Man was ready to start the marking up campaign. Of course, time will tell pending out the outcome of the elections, the forced wearing of the mask, and the number of cases of death/destruction/chaos promoted in the media in the coming weeks.
The Senate is on vacation till December. Something about while the cats away come to mind…
Looking Forward Friday, November 20, 2020
Price ended the day strong and then two hours later it was back from whence it started. Still trying to get out of that November 9 trading range. Could we lose yesterday’s low? Sure. The next support might be the 3518 handle. That is of course if the price really sold off.
Could price climb up above that 3585 on a Friday before a Thanksgiving Holiday? WIll news come out today that could move the needle? Not likely. As I write this, Globex has already moved most of its normal range except a 10 handle.
First, we have to recover the 3567 and then on to the 71 and then 78 and beyond. It could happen or price could head back South, spring the 3542 and get caught in a trading range.
Some of you may remember WB, aka William Blunt; I keep his clock. We were good friends and he asked me to keep it running before his passing a few years ago. This clock will set you free and give you an edge but it’s not the easiest to understand and run with. Please give me a call or drop an email.
1-888-WYCKOFF or drop me an email at trader@wyckoffamtrader.com or just click on the link below to get started.
I’ll have some short videos ready for you tomorrow, around 15 to 30 minutes, that outline the Series day from this week. Take the time to watch the video and complete it. You can ask questions in the chatbox to your right. In the AM TURN, I talked about male vs female energy. If you want to read it just ask me for a copy…
The videos are Free for now. If you’d like a look see just drop me an email
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 48 points Monday, 7 points Tuesday, 14 points Wednesday, and 23 points Thursday. Total for the week 92 points, that would be $4,600 on 1 lot and $13,800 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Sideways into the close, but the MOCs did lean a bit to the sell side. A stealthy see is going on here.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
The U.S.A put in a 2,000 new death day yesterday. That hasn’t been seen since the initial outbreak in the Northeast. Today we take a look at 40% of our accumulated deaths which have been in long term care facilities, nursing homes, veteran homes, and rehabilitation hospitals. During that initial spring outbreak, the northeast struggled to keep LTCs safe. To date, New Hampshire heads this list with 80% of their deaths taking place in LTCs, Rhode Island was 76%.
While therapeutics have certainly decreased the mortality rate of the Covid infection, hardening the protocols at LTCs is most likely the biggest single factor in reducing that rate. More testing with rapid turn around and mitigation once an infection is determined has made a major impact.
More data can be found at: https://covidtracking.com/data/longtermcare
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – Chart of the Day – Wheat – Nov 20, 2020
Wheat (DEC)
GMTT called the low in Wheat in August, went long at 495 and took profit on October 20th at 635.
That is where we flipped the trade to short.
Still holding short and our first downside target 585 came close.
A good close below 585 gives a next downside target towards 523.
The suggested protective buy stop is 611.
We offer a free 14-day trial to the Global Macro Technical Report which is published three times weekly.
The report covers: Global Indices, Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Soft Commodities, Currencies, and Bitcoin.
For more info and how to sign up for the free trial visit our website:
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3573.75 | Opening Print: 3556.75 |
| Low: 3542.50 | High 3582.75 |
| Volume: 150K | Low: 3542.75 |
| ES Settlement 3575.00 | |
| Total Volume 1.2M |
S & P 500 Futures Recap
Lowest Volume of November
After trading in a 31.25 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Thursday’s cash session at 3556.75, down 5.00 handles, and traded to the daily low of 3542.25 in the first fifteen minutes. From there, buyers came in pushing the ES to the morning high of 3567.75, a 25.50 handle rally at 9:45 CT. For the remainder of the morning, through the noon hour and into the afternoon, the S&Ps would trade in a tight fifteen handle range.
Finally, mid-afternoon the ESZ would break out of the change, rally up to the daily high of 3582.75, and chop further into the close before settling at 3575.00, up 10.00 handles or +0.27% on total volume of 1.2 million. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the low made on the open and holding into the late day.
OUR VIEW
Selling The Rips, Buying The Dips Has A New Meaning
I have had this unsettled feeling about the overall price action of the stock market over the last few weeks and yesterday’s early sell-off and late-day high followed by Mnuchin saying he would not extend emergency lending programs was a good example of the title of today’s view; sell the rip and buy the dips! On Dec. 31 several novel Fed programs that have backed corporate credit and municipal-borrowing markets and provided loans to small and midsize businesses and nonprofits during the coronavirus pandemic will end. The ‘rug pull’ dropped the #ES futures down 40 handles from the 3582.75 high and down 33 from the close.
Our view, while I still think we will see higher prices going into the end of November and December there are some obvious roadblocks. The first is the Covid19 pandemic, the second was the Mnuchin headlines and lastly is the failure of the government to come to terms on a stimulus program. After taking a view that the ES would get beat up and changing my view that the markets would go higher into the election I am now starting to think ‘everyone’ is thinking the ES is going up into the end of the year and am now starting to think it may be a good idea to lower my expectations. Our lean is… to take a go-slow approach. If I had a gun to my head I think you buy the early weakness and sell the rallies and then look for a spot to buy a pullback and look for a late Friday rip but again, I have a funny feeling about the overall price action. If the ES is good it should go back to 3580-3600 and if not, 3520-3510 should be initial support.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
No responses yet