Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD2): “Buy the Dip” is and continues to be the trade strategy, as any attempt from bears to break uptrend fails, only to reverse and notch new highs daily. Value also continues to increase, so until there is change in that structural condition, trend up remains in-effect. Range was 45.75 handles, above10-day average of 29, with 1.2M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Bullish price momentum is firmly in-place with nothing but blue-sky above. Next key Cycle Zone measures 3539 – 3542. We then have two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3525, initially targeting 3539 – 3542 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3525, initially targeting 3515 – 3510 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 2
Thanks for reading,
Polaris Trading Group
In the Tradechat Room
The MiM was telling the world that the MOC was going to be a sell and it was and nobody cared. A 5-point range into the 15:50 reveal had everyone complacent and when the MOC was a decent 1.2B to sell they yawned, but the 15:55 candle paired off all the imbalance taking it to just -260M, more and more of the trading day is on the 15:55 candle. That buy was a 10-point rocket ride that carried the momentum into the bell.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
We are going to take a break from our focus on the three problem states: Florida, Texas and California. They are all three mitigating their infections and on the downside. That is not true for everyone. Today I want to show Illinois, they are riding the 2nd wave:
But these second times around produce a much flatter looking death rate:
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3516.255||Opening Print: 3501.50|
|Low: 3484.25||High 3527.50|
|Volume: 236,000||Low: 3491.75|
|ES Settlement 3526.75|
|Total Volume 1.2 Milliion|
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 09/01/ 2020
Turnaround Tuesday Welcomes In The 4th Quarter
After trading in a 32 handles overnight session, the S&P 500 futures opened the regular trading hours in the middle of that range at 3501.50 and traded down to 3491.75, a tick shy of a 10 handle drop in the opening fifteen minutes. There, bulls would defend and that print would mark the low of the day and buyers would rally up to a morning high of 3513.50, +21.75, handles at 9:30. The ES would then drop 10.50 handles down to 3503.00 for a midmorning low, and then chop sideways to higher the rest of the morning.
At 12:30, buy programs would thrust the index futures to new highs and this momentum would continue through the rest of the afternoon. Then, in the final half-hour of the session, a strong surge of momentum would thrust the ES up to 3527.25, up 35.50 handles from the early low. The index would settle the day at 3526.75 up 27.75 handles or +0.79%
In terms of price action, it was all about buying the low in the first few minutes of the session. Bulls did run out of ammo late morning but then reloaded in the afternoon with a big finale. Total volume amounted to a modest 1.24 million, just under the ten-day average.
Same Story, Just Another Day
I am going to make this short and sweet. The PitBull said he has never seen anything like the current move up in his 51 years of trading. The ES has closed higher 18 out of the last 22 sessions and it’s still climbing. It’s 7:30 PM CT and the ES just traded up to 3538.00. The shorts have been totally ‘smoked’ but like everyone else, I have to ask … for how long? The NQ just traded 12383.25, on its way to my NQ 13800 call. The real question is will the ES and NQ correct soon? Well, September being the start of the business year, end of vacations and back to school made the month a leading barometer in the first 60 years of the 20th century; portfolio managers back after the Labor Day holiday tend to clean house. Biggest % loser on the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq since 1950. A streak of four great Dow Septembers averaging 4.2% gains ended in 1999, down 6% in 2008 and 2001. Day after Labor day Dow up 16 of the last 25, S&P opened strong 14 of the last 24 years but tends to get weak due to quarter-end mutual fund rebalancing, last trading day of September down 17 of the last 26. And don’t forget… Triple Witching week can be dangerous.
Our view is to sell a gap up open or the first rally above and buy the dip and be on the lookout for the midmorning low to get long. If that plays out I’ll take a hike from 11:00 to 2:30 or 3:00 and come back and play the MIM.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.