***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price rallied during the Globex Session fulfilling 3 Day Cycle Objective 3747.50, before declining to Average Range Decline 3720. Range was 33.25 handles on 972k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Cycle Low is in-place (3714.50) as Bulls will need to keep bid above this level heading into year end. Santa Claus Rally trade is still in full force, so as Danny Riley (Dboy) says: “Thin To Win”. There are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Yesterday was a sideways move in a 10 point range for the last hour of the day. A small buy MOC was revealed at 15:50 which initially sent the 15:50 candle higher but eventually headed south and set up for the closing cande to do just the opposite.
Washington state fell off the rising category into stable, now no state has a rising caseload. If we are going to get a Christmas surge we should be seeing it now. So far my prediction of a rise in salmon-colored states is proving to be wrong and I hope that continues!
Wear your masks! Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line) Stay home! Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of The Day
(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session
(ESH20:CME) Day Session
Opening Print: 3744.25
Total Volume 920,000
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date December 29, 2020
Turnaround Tuesday Profit Taking
After trading in an 18.25 point overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s regular session at 3744.25, traded a daily high of 3746.25 in the opening minutes, and then sold off down to 3724.25 in the first hour before rallying to a midmorning high of 3735.00. Then, late in the morning, the ES began to once again sell, pushing down to 3714.50 for the low of day around 11:30 CT.
From there, the S&Ps would get a lift off the lows but would fail to rally until late in the day when the ES pushed to an afternoon high of 3725.75 before settling the day at 3724.50, down 3.00 handles on total volume of 920K. In terms of price action, it was all about selling the open and holding into the late morning low.
#ES #NQ New Highs Meets The End Of The Year Rebalance
Major European markets are flat this morning, the NQ is up 45 points, the YM is up 110 points and the ES is up 13.5 handles. Bitcoin is up 910 points at 27,804 and gold, silver and crude oil are all trading higher. Does this sound familiar? It should, at least when it comes to the index markets. While there is a feeling of the end of 2020 is for sale in most cases the indexers sell one sector and buy another which is all part of the T+ 2 process of selling the underperforming stocks and marking up the winning stocks. I heard last night the total value of the rebalance is $900 billion.
There is no reason to overdo today’s OP, there are 1 1/2 trading days left in 2020. While stocks got killed when Covid hit there has been an astonishing rally off the heels of an ever-shrinking US economy. Will that continue in 2021? I think it will but not without some large pullbacks/declines.
Our view, while the times of the early lows have varied it’s my guess the index markets pull back after the open and then rally. Volume should remain lower than yesterday’s 920k ES as more people push back from the screens to take advantage of the New Year holiday.
I want to thank all of you for being part of MrTopStep. It was a good year for the company and a very good year for trading. I want to wish ‘you and yours’ the very best in the new year. If anyone would like to talk, just email me at email@example.com Be safe …
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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