|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3364.75||Opening Print: 3346.25|
|Low: 3331.75||High 3358.25|
|Volume: 510,000||Low: 3298.25|
|ES Settlement 3324,25|
|Total Volume 2.29 M|
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 09/11/ 2020
S&P 500 Futures: Sell The Open
After trading in a 33.00 handle range in the overnight session, the S&P 500 futures opened Friday’s cash session at 3346.25, up 6.00 handles, and then sold to a 3325.50 early morning low just after 9:00 a.m. CT. From there, buyers came in pushing the index futures up to what would amount to a high of day at 3358.25 just after 10:00, a 32.75 handle rally. From there, the tide would turn as sellers began to push the S&Ps down to 3319.00 for the morning low.
The sell pressure continued in the futures markets as the ES would eventually print the low of day just after 12:00 at 3298.25, a 60.00 handle pullback from the highs. Buyers stepped in at this point and kept the finger on the bid as the ESU made its way up to an afternoon high of 3342.00 late in the final hour, a 43.75 handle bounce before settling the day at 3324.25, down 16.00 handles or -0.48%.
In terms of price action, it was all about selling the rallies in the morning and afternoon. Total volume was an impressive 2.29 million.
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My (Marlin) home state of Maine tops the worst list. The state had been consistently at the top of the best states due to non-dense population, our northern border is cut off due to the Canadian border closure, limited access, and our state policies have been quite strict with mask mandates, small gatherings and the requirement of either a negative test or 14-day quarantine for most out-of-state visitors. With a year-round population of 1.3M and a summer population that usually swells to 12M, there had been expectations that despite all of this we were going to get some COVID tourist spike. It never happened.
What did happen is someone decided to get married at the beginning of August. They broke the gathering size rules and didn’t wear masks. The guests came from three distinct areas of Maine, York county where I live, Somerset county in the middle of the state, and northern Penobscot county where my cabin is. I had been hiding most of the summer away up north since there was not a single case of COVID in the area. That has changed. All three areas mentioned now have outbreaks that our state contact tracers are working to stamp out.
The great thing about the Maine CV19 experiment is that the numbers are small enough to understand anecdotally how this virus spreads. So far the net result is over 160 cases from one and five dead (it entered a long-term care facility). Maine has moved from averaging just 10 cases a day back up to 30, hence our filters have picked it out as a potential hotspot.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Chart of the Day
NASDAQ : Worst Decline Since March
The stock market has come a long way since the COVID19 lows and has now started to turn south. Last week the Nasdaq Composite had its worst week since the middle of March (down -4%) since the over 12% tumble in the week ended March 20, according to FactSet data. Since its March 23rd low, the Nasdaq has rallied 75% through September 2nd and then sold off 10% over the next 3 sessions. Stocks finished a very volatile week with the Dow up 0.50%, the S&P flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.60%. The S&P closed out the week down -2.5%, its worst week since June. Clearly the historically weak period for stocks, September and October are living up to their bad reputation. Is it a bubble? I don’t know but what I do know is volatility and volume have leaped and with the election just 50 days away I suspect the wild market swings will only get worse.
Mid-Month Rebalance, Fed’s 2 Day Meeting & The September Quadruple Witching
Our view, if you were expecting a slow week you may want to reconsider. This week is packed with economic releases, the mid-month rebalance, the two day Fed meeting, and the September quadruple witch. Late last Friday I called for a rip and the ES rallied over 35 handles and the NQ rallied 150 points but pulled back going into the close. I sold out my long NQ positive but stayed long on the ES. Our lean, I am going to try and stay long but I can not rule out selling the open and look to buy the pullbacks. I don’t think it’s ‘closets clear’ but I do think the ES can short cover further.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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