Premium OP: Four Stocks Make Up Two-Thirds of the S&Ps Gains This Year

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Market Review

Gagan Daphu – ES Zones

We reached our Initial fractal target of 3375 and the model target of 3379 yesterday. Now looking to buy shallow pullbacks for the next fractal projection of 3430.

For today’s levels-

  1. Buy 3353, stop 3345, target 3380
  2. Buy 3340,  stop 3345, target 3374-80
  3. Buy 3309,  stop 3303, target 3330-74-80

For subscribers we offer a live chart share with updated levels and trades, blue lines are the entries and red lines recommended stops.

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Economic Calendar


Closing Prices


In the Tradechat Rooms

The MiM

A tiny, uneventful MIM lead to guess what?  Higher prices. The market continues in a panic as pressure from outside money continues to flow into the market.  Not here though, a reveal of just 642M to buy. We are adding to our IRAs but there’s a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for better prices.  

HFT Alert

 All the programs kicked off during the last half hour of trading as we settled into the new highs. Total for the day was nine programs, 4 buys and 5 sells.


Chart of the Day


Top Stories on MTS Overnight:


Globex

(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session(ESH20:CME) Day Session 
High 3374.50Opening Print: 3372.50
Low: 3351.75High 3380.75
Volume: 168,000Low: 3368.50

ES Settlement: 3380.50

Total Volume: 1.2 M

S&P 500 Futures: Low Rates and QE4 Trumps CoronaVirus

The ES traded down to 3355.50 on Globex and rallied all the way up to 3374.50. On the 8:30 CT futures open the ES 3372.50 traded up to 3376.00, broke a few handles and then made a new high by one tick at 3376.25 and then broke down to 3370.50. After the pullback, the ES traded back up to the early highs at 3376.00 level then broke down to 3368.50. After the low, the ES ‘back and filled’ between 3369.25 to 3373.50 until around 11:30 when it traded up to a new high at 3376.75. After the high, the ES traded back down to the 3369.50 level just before 12:30 CT and then traded up to a new high at 3378.25 at 1:50.

The ES traded 3376.00 at 2:00 as the early MiM showed $25 million to buy and at 2:20 dropped down to the 3373.50 area. At 2:30 the ES traded 3367.25, traded 3378.50 as the final 2:50 cash imbalance showed $690 million to buy, traded 3379.00 on the 3:00 cash close and settled at 3380.50 on the 3:15 CT futures close, up 21.25 handles or +0.63 % on the day. 

In the end, the Nasdaq continues to outperform dragging all the other indices higher. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm but it seems like the higher it goes the lower the volume falls. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was low just over 1M futures traded.

Our view: Four Stocks Make Up Two-Thirds of the S&Ps Gains This Year: MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, and AAPL

While they say the spread of the coronavirus is slowing in China the virus claimed more lives in China on Sunday than in any 24-hour period since the outbreak began in late December.  According to officials with the World Health Organization, ninety-seven people died of the infection over that timespan. At the same time, the danger to Americans seemed only to be increasing. Over the last few weeks, hundreds of American’s have been evacuated from China and placed in isolation on U.S. military bases for symptom-monitoring and dozens more are waiting to leave. While China is saying it is containing the virus, many experts fear that the worst is yet to come. I am probably like a lot of folks, I really do not know how this will end up but what I do know is the S&P doesn’t seem to be too concerned about it right now.

When you look at how the ES sold off and closed on Tuesday I think it’s fair to say that there was a good possibility that the ES would be weak yesterday but when I saw the ES trade down to 3351 on Globex and rally during the night session I kind of knew the futures were going to rally. Again, the big key to this is the Nasdaq. At 4:00 yesterday the NQH20 was up 0.98%. Like the title above; two-thirds of the gains in the S&P so far this year have come from four stocks; MSFT +17.13% YTD, AMZN +16.76% YTD, GOOG +13.56% YTD, and AAPL +11.43% YTD. Our lean is pretty much like it always is when the ES is trending high, you can sell the early rallies and buy weakness or just be patient and buy the pullbacks.


Market Vitals Technical Analysis

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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

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Danny Riley (3469 Posts)

Danny Riley has worked in the futures and options industry for 38 years, including the CBOT’s bond room, where he worked for several of the Market Wizards. He went on to build the largest volume desk in the S&P 500 Index Futures, serving some of the largest banks and hedge funds, the UBS program trading business, and some of the world's top individual traders. As a leader and co-creator of the MrTopStep IM-Pro Trading Room, he shares trading ideas and breaking market news live from the floor with our other professional traders and new traders eager to experience the power of collective intelligence. Join us today and get the edge only social trading can give you.


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