Premium OP: China Virus Dip & the WHO Rip

on January 24, 2020

Market Review

PREVIOUS DAY — THURSDAY JANUARY 23, 2020

On January 23 price opened at 3313, 7 handles down from settle.

Ok, there was no bid in sight. The spill was down. And boy howdy…was it down. As you can see in the minute closes. 3310 4/8 on 11,400 lots.

Next minute three handles lower at 3307 4/8 on 4,800 lots. And then a bid starts coming in. Not before ALGOS take out our trade and drop it down to 3302.50 (5 handles lower) on $ 2.338 MM in trade value.

Price then rallies up the high (high of day) AM HIGH (center time) and then falls back down to the MID AM LOW 60 minutes later to 3303 6/8 handle.

I discussed a few days back that I felt a bid coming in the Wyckoff Wave. That may have been preliminary support. Yesterday’s action hinted at a potential selling climax. The dip down at 11:30 may have been the second test of that selling climax.

After price found the low at the 3301 at 9:39 we had a strong close with a 25 handle trading range and settled at 3326 handle. By 2:30 the Wyckoff Wave found the Floor Trader Pivot R1 and was holding. Close was strong on greatly increased volume

This hints for further upside in days to come.

Please review Market Recap Video for further detail.
https://my.demio.com/ref/EDZmvyIDQUOMVG1x

LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY JANUARY 24

We are starting to see a trend with the PEONS (overnight) putting in higher highs and CASH knocking it back down. Will it continue?

Great moves are usually followed by good moves. Expect more of the same. Trump’s Impeachment is losing traction. The market is gaining traction. So so great for the opposing party. Unless…they find another shoe to drop! (Jan-7)

And a shoe was found a few days later in Wuhan, Ezhou, Huanggang, Chibi, Qianjiang, Zhejiang, Jingmen, and Xiantao, all in central China’s Hubei province, as the total number of coronavirus cases in mainland China rose to 830 and the death toll to 26.

And yet the market is still rockin’ in the free world?

Does it appear that the worst news of a virus forbidding a person to leave a city does not shake the market? I’m still seeing checking of the rallies to lower highs. Unless there is a strong bullish news catalyst we could see revisiting the 3290 and below.

However, Thursday’s price behavior may negate the glass-half-empty unless more shoes start to drop?

This day ends the cycle and the week. Expect movement in the first and last hour.

If buying pressure persists, expect low in the first 60 minutes at best, 30 minutes better. And high in the last 30 to 60 minutes of trading secession. It’s a Friday, potential Scare da bull and book square. I’ll discuss that another Friday.

As I write this, overnight high pushed up at 3332 at 18:05 and still trading within the range of that 5-minute bar.

I don’t profess nor do I claim to have the secret to trading. You’ll never see me on a private jet hocking my latest 1, 2, 3 pattern that will give you riches untold. I don’t even have a 1, 2, 3 pattern.

What I do have is a proven track record of delivering my subscribers a 3,933 plus point net since August 18, 2018. On average we print about 130 points each 30 days. Below is Tuesday’s 13 point trade.

I just provide levels you can trust every day intended to trade for 2 to 4 points with a 2 to 4 point stop. You get four potential longs and four potential shorts each trading day. Below Wednesday’s 10 point trade.

I’m a trader first. Old School market educator second. And levels you can trust supplier third.

I provide a market recap video of the day before discussing one old school market principle the 1930’s traders may have played and an email with a PDF file chocked full of charts to view.

I use a Hidden clock, my mentor, WB, showed me and the Fundamental Rules of the Market Richard D. Wyckoff forged in stone when trading first began.

Using the Wyckoff Wave allows you to possibly put on a larger size and using the timing of WB’s internal clock (that clock that controls all turns intraday every day) allows you to hold trades longer giving you more potential profit and a lean on the next turn (direction) and duration. I’m the last of my kind – and there’s only one of me left!

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Closing Prices

In the Tradechat Rooms

The MiM

Ain’t no stopping the buyers yet. Small MiM numbers are not going to do it. We did get a 1.5B sell at the reveal but the market did not care and rose into the close.

HFT Alert

Fairly active day as far as program trading. We had 14 detected programs with 5 designated as sells and 9 as buys. That 11 am program appeared to be oil-related. At the 3:50 pm reveal we had the MOC reveal program shoot off. Look above for the MiM data.

Economic Calendar

Globex

GLOBEX Session	Day Session
High: 3321.25	Opening Print: 3313.50
Low: 3310.50	High: 3324.75
Volume: 276,000	Low: 3301.25
	ES Settlement: 3326.00
	Total Volume: 1.6M

#ChinaVirus Dip And The #WHO Rip

The S&P futures sold down to 3310.50 on Globex and opened yesterday’s regular session at 3313.50, down x handle on the day and then sold off down to 3301.25 after the open. I could do a big ‘blow by blow’ of the day’s trade but after rallying up to the 3313 area a few times and making several high lows a headline crossed the tape that said WHO (World Health Organization) said that it was too early to declare an international virus alarm to constitute as a crisis and the ES rallied 20 handles off its low up to 3321.50 around 1:00 CT. After a small pull back the ES rallied up to 3323.50. I could see early on that the selling was drying up and the ES was ‘back and filling’ but I refused to get out and I turned a $1,000 winner into a $200 winner by thinking the ES was going to take out 3300.00.

After another small downtick, the ES traded up to 3324.75 at 2:01 as the MiM showed $386 million to buy. Around 2:30 the ES traded up to a new high at 3336.50 as the MiM flipped to $135 million to sell. The ES traded 3333.00 as the final 2:50 cash imbalance showed $1.4 billion to sell, traded 3336.00 on the 3:00 cash close and the MiM flipped back to $71 million to sell and settled at 3336.00 on the 3:15 futures close, up 25 handles off the low or up 8.75 handle or +0.26% on the day.

In the end, the overall tone went from very weak to very firm after the WHO headlines, it was, as they say, like night and day. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was high at 1.6 million futures traded.

Chart of the Day

Our View

Who’s WHO?

I knew there was a big risk to just calling for selling the rally and by 10:30 CT it was very clear the selling had ‘dried up’ That said, I stuck with my shorts and instead of making decent money I tuned an 18 handle winner into a 4 handle winner. I am not sure who in the World Health Organization (WHO) decided that there should be no virus alarm but at the end of the day, nothing really surprises me anymore. What I can say is that the ES did another great job of turning bad news into good.

Our view is plain and simple, you can sell the early rallies and buy the pullback or you can just be patient and buy the pullbacks. I highly doubt all the short sellers and hedgers covered and with the ES closing on the highs of the day, a Friday short squeeze cannot be ruled out.

PitBull: *OSC=Oscillator
clh osc -22/-8 turns up on a close above 5797
esh osc 20/16 turns up on a close above 334391 vix osc 6/-1 turns down on a close below 1279

Market Vitals Technical Analysis

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

_{Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.}

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