The ESU20 keeps doing its thing, grinding higher. The 3382s high reached on Tuesday became the line-in-the-sand resistance area which held the week’s highs while the lows kept the ESU20 uptrend intact. The latest coronavirus stimulus bill did not happen this week but hopes are high that it will happen once Congress gets back from their August recess provides the market’s buoyancy. As I am writing this on Monday evening, after the ESU20 spent the cash session in a 9-point range under the 3382s, it is moving higher into virgin territory. The Nasdaq is leading the way by hitting new all-time highs today.
With the ESU20 heading into virgin territory, there is no structural resistance above. Structural support is as follows:
3350 to 3365 – Aug 14 and Aug 17 lows
3319 to 3326 – Aug 11 and Aug 12 lows
3292 to 3300 – Aug 3 to Aug 5 resistance to support area
3255 to 3271 – Aug 3 and Aug 4 lows
3190 to 3112 – Jul 14 to Jul 21 resistance to support area
Volatility is holding constant with the 5-day average daily range of 40 ES points. The inevitable pullback could happen any week, but as with many trends, markets will move further for longer than most would expect.
Below is a snap of the ESU20 daily chart with the above support and resistance numbers marked for reference. Thanks again for reading. For more information on how DTG can help your trading, visit us at DiscoveryTradingGroup.com
In the Tradechat Room
That 13:55 candle’s volume really sticks out. It didn’t move the market as we slid through a 5-point range into the close. There was decent size on both sides of the imbalance ledger, 1.7B buy and 1.4B sell, but that netted out to a lot of nothing. The market is just churning, no new money coming in on the close or leaving.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Florida continues to build back up some downside momentum in daily new cases and that is good, Texas, though, I just don’t know what is happening there. Their over/under number yesterday was 4,455 and they blew through that at 7,368. If that trend continues we would see Texas move back up to the 10K level. Let’s hope it is data housekeeping, otherwise, today’s over/under number of 9.8K could end up being 13K.
California stayed below their over/under so for today we would like confirmation that they are beyond their data issues.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M) looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
A bit of a glimmer of hope for Florida and California, they both beat their over/under numbers by a bit. Today’s impact if they both come in lower could be more significant, particularly in Flordia with an over/under number of 277. Texas is just hanging around with no real trend.
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for today. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
|Florida||4,155 / 2,678||93 / 87||5,831||277|
|Texas||4,455 / 7,368||31 / 51||9,803||220|
|California||7,751 / 6,469||66 / 18||12,500||109|
|New York||476 / 408||2 / 6||667||7|
Use today’s number to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3379.00||Opening Print: 3378.75|
|Low: 3364.75||High 3382.7|
|Volume: 170,000||Low: 3374.00|
|ES Settlement 3380.00|
|Total Volume 1.05 Million|
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 08/17/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
#ES Slowest Day of 2020
After a quiet Globex trade that leaned higher, the S&P 500 futures opened Monday’s cash session at 3378.75, up 16.75 handles, and would push to an early high of 3381.00 on the open before pulling back 7.0 handles down to 3374.00, which would hold as the morning low. Buying returned around 9:30 pushing the futures up to what would hold as the high of the day at 3382.75, just before 10:00.
From there, the ES would chop in a 4.75 handle range for more than 4 hours, before finally grinding to the afternoon low of 3375.25 just after 2:00. This low would hold as the S&P’s did manage to climb back up to the 3381.00 price before settling the day at 3380.00, up 18.00 handles on the day, or 0.57%.
In terms of price action, it was a quiet day, with only an 8.25 handle range, in terms of volume, it was also light with only 733K contracts traded. The range and volume made is the slowest day of the year.
It’s 7:30 PM and the ES just ran some of the buy stops above 3382.50 up to 3387.75. While most think in terms of what is going to happen during the day session the real trade is on Globex at night. The moves are bigger and it’s a cleaner trade. My guess is there are less bots running due to the S&P cash being closed. The reality is the global stock markets are rising off record amounts of liquidity provided by the central banks. I am not here to fight the Fed, It’s easier to just go with the flow and follow the trend.
Our view, I had a feeling the first part of the stop run would be on Globex. That said, no one knows what the exact price of the ES will be on this morning’s 8:30 CT futures open but if I had to take a guess I would say higher. I also want to keep things in perspective; today could be another low volume grind. Our lean is for thin to win and higher prices. You can sell the higher open and look for a pullback to cover and get long or you can just keep it simple, stupid, and buy the pullbacks.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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