Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3347.25 | Opening Print: 3332.00 |
| Low: 3323.25 | High 3346.75 (@ 2:55 CT) |
| Volume: 365,000 | Low: 3322.50 (@ 1:10 CT) |
| ES Settlement 3345.25 | |
| Total Volume 1.578 Million |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 08/07/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
#ES 3346.75
After a sideways trade in the overnight session, the S&P 500 futures opened Friday’s cash session at 3332.00, down 12.50 handles and in the opening minutes would reach the morning low of 3327.50 before grinding to the morning high of 3346.00 just after 10:00 am. From there, the ES would chop lower into the afternoon, falling below the open, and printing the low of the day at 3322.50 just after 1:00 pm. The S&P’s would find support at that area as buyers leaned on the overnight low and then began to push the benchmark index futures into a climb in the final two hours of the session. The high of the day would come in at the closing minutes of the cash session at 3346.75 before settling the day at 3345.25, up three ticks.
In terms of total volume, the ESU20 would trade a strong 1.578 million contracts, the highest of the week. In terms of trade, it was a think-to-win chop with a late afternoon Friday RIP. Buyers of the early morning low and the midafternoon lows were rewarded.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
The MiM at the 15:50 reveal went from nothing to about 1B and a decent buy lean with 71% of dollars and 68% of symbols (#) on the buy-side. The market yawned and moved sideways into the close. This week should see pretty weak MiMs barring any market jarring.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid-19
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Florida and California have the right direction going, but California announced yet more data issues with about a 500,000 case backlog to be processed. I wish the public and press were more disturbed than I perceive as data is one of the top line weapons we have on controlling and understanding the virus and we are failing miserably in all states. The dust in the CA data backlog should work out by the end of the week.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M) looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Florida did not have a big roll-over yet and looking at hospitalizations we see a bit of a rise later than we expected. We mentioned the data issue in CA above and in TX we await the confirmed roll, too, so on hold expecting better results throughout the week.
We are at the start of the week with small numbers which makes it hard to make dramatic changes.
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for today. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
| Yesterday | Yesterday | Today | Today | |
| State | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths |
| Florida | 7,104 / 6,229 | 62 / 77 | 4,752 | 73 |
| Texas | 0 / 4,879 | 295 / 116 | 11,529 | 179 |
| California | 9,032 / 8,373 | 96 / 104 | 5,739 | 32 |
| New York | 531 / 515 | 5 / 7 | 545 | 2 |
Use today’s number to watch the releases to determine the trend.
Our over/under numbers for yesterday were all under in the new daily cases and in daily death increases except for Texas that went from 84 deaths to 306. We think that is record keeping noise and it will smooth out over time, we hope. We continue to monitor NY as a bellwether for re-infections post major surges. NY continues to be under control.
Today’s O/U numbers should be beaten on daily cases. CA has a very low number for today, again an artifact of record keeping. If they beat that everyone will be surprised, we won’t but as we know, a daily number doesn’t mean much in trend info.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay Home!
Chart of the Day
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 08/06/ 2020
Our View
S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs
There is a bucketful of negatives that we could talk about; everything from 5 million cases of COVID19 in the US to the legalities of President Trump’s payroll tax executive order to the sinking dollar to gold trading above $2000. The list goes on and on and on. While the stock market is clearly in a bubble I don’t think it’s about to blow up yet, in fact, I think it’s going to get bigger. As I have said hundreds of times, I am not an economist but I don’t think you have to be! The government and the fed are printing money like never before and there seems to be no end in sight. I still think as September and October roll around volatility will rise and the S&P will fall.
Our view, if you’re a bear the small pullback and low volume should be a concern. The ES is now less than 2% off its all-time high. Our lean is to sell the early rally and buy the bull backs. The S&P has been up 6 sessions in a row and despite thinking we see new highs the odds favor some type of pullback. As always, use stops.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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