Market Review
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3226.00 | Opening Print: 3220.50 |
| Low: 3204.25 | High 3257.00 |
| Volume: 250K | Low: 3220.00 |
| ES Settlement 3252.25 Up 39.25 handles or +1.22% | |
| Total Volume 1.18 Million |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 7/29/2020
#ES Fed Day Chop & Rip
I am not going to do a blow by blow of yesterday’s trade. The ES opened modestly high and basically kept a ‘bid’ all day. While there were some 10 to 14 handle pullbacks every dip was bought. The ES traded 3220.50 on the 8:30 open and traded all the way up to 3257 late in the session, up 39.25 handles (points) or up 1.22% on the day.
In terms of the overall price, the ES acted firmly all day with every pull back being bought. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was super LOW at 1.18 million but when you take out the 191,000 contracts traded on Globex total day session volume 989,000 ES traded on the day session.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
A middle of the road MiM started showing at 14:00 and it really didn’t move much. The 15:50 reveal showed a balanced set of imbalances with 1.3 Billion to sell and 1B to buy with a difference yielding a net imbalance of 300M to sell on 2.3B worth of imbalance dollars making the dollar percentage just -60%. With 580 symbols having imbalances more than half, 52%, actually had buy imbalances and that is not a herd and hence a 5 point chop into the close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid-19
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M), looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Next week these charts will begin to look very different, right now they are downright frightening. The next two days are high number days for all 3 states as we begin reporting Tuesday and Wednesday actual stats due to a horrible lag in the reporting systems. The peak of the next 3 days will most like be the peak of the current surge for all three states.
Texas had over 300 deaths yesterday. Last week we were predicting 200 numbers and now this week we are hitting 300. That looks very scary in the news cycle. We should see the growth start to slow down and we expect the 300 numbers to pretty much be the peak.
California continues to break out above that 100 cap as we expected. This trend should continue into next week when we should start to see some improvement.
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for 7/28/2020. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
| Yesterday | Yesterday | Today | Today | |
| State | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths |
| Florida | 9,785 / 9,446 | 140 / 217 | 10, 249 | 173 |
| Texas | 9,879 / 9,042 | 197 / 313 | 9,507 | 173 |
| California | 12,807 / 8,755 | 115 / 197 | 12,040 | 157 |
| New York | 705 | 10 / 6 | 811 | 10 |
Use today’s number to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay Home!
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Our View
Tech Earnings Thursday
We all know what’s up today, the jobless claims number and Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook all scheduled to report earnings at 4:00 ET and thereafter. The four names represent $5 trillion in market cap. The four stocks represent about 16% of the S&P 500. Amazon is up 63% so far in 2020, Apple is up 29% year-to-date and has the largest market cap at $1.65 trillion, Alphabet and Facebook are up about 13% each, while the S&P 500 is up 0.50% for the year. Something has to give! There is no way in hell this won’t be a market-moving event. So buckle up folks, we are in for a big ride!
Our view, they say the market never goes down going into market-leading earnings but I am not sure that will be the case late today. I suspect we see higher prices in the first part of the day but later things may be a bit skittish. I know selling the gap up didn’t work yesterday and while I took the trade I got right out and got long. That said, if the ES gaps up 10 to 15 handles higher on the open I would look to be a seller and if its gaps down 10 to 15 handles lower I would be a buyer on the open. In either case, I would take profits and look for the midmorning low to cover and go long. As always I will pull back from the screens going into 11:00 ET and then come back after 2:30 and ‘try’ to play the MIM with very tight risk controls and get the hell out of the way when the big four start reporting.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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