Market Review
Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D. Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Early Violation of Cycle Day 1 Low (3140.50) quickly reversed as buyer’s regained control, holding firm bid all session. Market on Close Buy $2.3 Billion provided final fuel to close price near highs of the day and fulfilling CD2 Average Range of 73 handles.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Having closed near the high of the prior session, there remains upside potential to achieve 3212 Cycle Objective. We then have two scenarios to consider for today’s trading:
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3192, initially targeting 3212 – 3217 zone. Additional upside targets measure 3232 – 3239 Penetration Rally Zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3192 initially targeting 3175 – 3165 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 3
Thanks for reading,
PTGDavid
Polaris Trading Group
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MiM
Big buy. As early as 14:15 we were telegraphing a big buy from our floor sources in fact we were very suspicious as the $% number was pinned at 100%, that does not happen when there are 300 symbols on the board. It wasn’t until the 15:15 number when some sell symbols showed up that traders took the early numbers seriously and off we rode higher.
The 15:50 MOC reveal was a good 3.8B with 2.2B of that NYSE stocks and we held that #% number meaning there was widespread buying into the close
There was a good 30-point area in the middle. If you don’t have the MIM/MOC data on the close and you are trading you best just close your eyes and let the mouse decide.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid-19
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Death in paradise. We were surprised to see Hawaii make our top 10 worst list today. In all fairness, HI has small numbers so any cluster incidence is a mover and we are looking for changes in numbers, not absolute numbers. It is a reminder that we are all fighting the same virus.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M) and California (40M), looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Florida’s numbers continue to outpace the other two states with acceleration in their daily additions. California took a turn in the right direction. For all three states, today’s over/under should help us decern any trend change. We want the line at least flattened and for that to happen the numbers have to come in as below:
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for 7/15/2020. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
| Yesterday | Yesterday | Today | Today | |
| State | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths |
| Florida | 7,347/9,194 | 63/133 | 9,989/10,181 | 48/112 |
| Texas | 10,028/10,745 | 60/87 | 9,979/7,307 | 60/110 |
| California | 6,090/7,346 | 111/47 | 6,090/11,126 | 98/140 |
| New York | 918/912 | 8/5 | 692/831 | 20/9 |
Use today’s number to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your mask!
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Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3166.00 | Opening Print: 3131.75 |
| Low: 3129.75 | High 3192.50 |
| Volume: 440K | Low: 3118.25 |
| ES Settlement 3183.25, +3.75 handles or +0.10% | |
| Total Volume 2.3 Million |
S&P 500 RECAP – 7/14/2020
MOC BUY $2 BILLION
Today’s recap is going to be a 7 liner; The ES traded 3131.75 on the open, traded down to the low of 3118.25 at 8:53 and basically traded higher for the rest of the day making its high print of 3192.50 at 2:54 just after the MIM showed buy $2.4 million. On the 3:00 cash close, the ES traded 3170.50 and settled at 3183.25, up 3.75 handles or +0.10% on the day, or up 73.5 handles off the Globex low and 62.75 handles off the day session low.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was extremely bullish. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was high at 2.1 million contracts traded.
Our View
Banks Kick Of Earnings Season
In most cases when Wall Street analysts warn of negative earnings outlooks we all know it’s mostly BS but with COVID-19 ‘blowing up’ the U.S. economy it not only could be different this time, it will be. The key to yesterday’s weak open and big rally; JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup’s earnings beat analysts’ estimates, but the firms’ results highlighted the extraordinary economic uncertainty ahead. The keyword in the above sentence? UNCERTAINTY!!!!
Our view, I am going to make this short and sweet; I told the PitBull early yesterday that I think the ES is on its way to 3300. Yes, there was also news that Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine has shown it can spur the immune response but it won’t be ready until 2021. That all said, the ES has rallied from its 6/29/2020 3007 low to last night’s high of 3216.25 or 209.25 handles in the last 10 sessions with a whole lot of shakin’ going on in between. Our lean is to sell the gap up or the first rally above the gap, look for a 20+ handle pullback and the midmorning low to cover and go long, go swimming between 11:00 and 3:00 and come back and ride that MIM !!!
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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