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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 22 SEPTEMBER: ASX pares losses; Santos, Woodside rebound | Australian 10-year bond yields jump to a decade high | ACCC report boosts confidence in Australia’s gas industry |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 September: ASX to drop as rates mantra rattles global markets | Here are 15 uranium explorers under the $50m market cap mark | Lithium, geothermal energy giant Vulcan eyes expansion with new exploration license |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 21 SEPTEMBER: ASX drops 90 points, hits 10-week low | Brainchip, Syrah Resources sink after ASX 200 ejection | Beam Communications looks to unlock latent value in ZOLEO JV through arbitration |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 21 September: ASX to open lower | Potential for another rate rise later this year | Dow -0.2% S&P -0.9% Nasdaq -1.5% |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 SEPTEMBER: ASX falls as flurry of rate decisions loom | UK inflation falls, beats expectations | Alderan Resources picks up seven projects in Brazilian lithium hotbed |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 September: ASX to slip, Instacart leaps on debut | Fed outlook in focus | RocketDNA CEO explains why ‘drone-in-a-box’ is a game-changer for the company and drones industry |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 SEPTEMBER: ASX drops, New Hope powers up on profit stand-out | Brent oil rallies above $95 a barrel for the first time since November as Saudi Arabia and Russia curb supplies | Castle Minerals building with high-grade graphite concentrates |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 September: ASX to open lower | US stocks were little changed | Focus on the outlook for interest rates. |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 18 SEPTEMBER: ASX closes lower as tech retreats; Silver Lake sinks on Red 5 stake | Oil pushes closer to $US95 | Venus Metals discovers multiple new lithium zones at Youanmi project |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
    • feedid-56
    • feedid-58
    • feedid-61
    • feedid-59
    • feedid-60
    • feedid-62
    • feedid-63
    • feedid-65
    • feedid-66
  • Charts

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 22 SEPTEMBER: ASX pares losses; Santos, Woodside rebound | Australian 10-year bond yields jump to a decade high | ACCC report boosts confidence in Australia’s gas industry |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 September: ASX to drop as rates mantra rattles global markets | Here are 15 uranium explorers under the $50m market cap mark | Lithium, geothermal energy giant Vulcan eyes expansion with new exploration license |

    Daily Game Plan

    Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 21 SEPTEMBER: ASX drops 90 points, hits 10-week low | Brainchip, Syrah Resources sink after ASX 200 ejection | Beam Communications looks to unlock latent value in ZOLEO JV through arbitration |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 21 September: ASX to open lower | Potential for another rate rise later this year | Dow -0.2% S&P -0.9% Nasdaq -1.5% |

    Daily Game Plan

    Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 SEPTEMBER: ASX falls as flurry of rate decisions loom | UK inflation falls, beats expectations | Alderan Resources picks up seven projects in Brazilian lithium hotbed |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 September: ASX to slip, Instacart leaps on debut | Fed outlook in focus | RocketDNA CEO explains why ‘drone-in-a-box’ is a game-changer for the company and drones industry |

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    Do We Have a “Good” Low or Is This a Setup?

    Do We Have a “Good” Low or Is This a Setup?

    August Opex: Will Things Get Ugly?

    Are We Setting Up for an Opex Bounce?

    S&P Sits at Key Support as Trends Turn Bearish

    Correction Continues As Recent Lows Are on Watch

    Bulls Are Looking for a Bounce After Slow Start to August

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    Stocks Under Pressure Early on Friday. Can We Get a Low?

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    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    24X5 Options Trading Begins Sunday, November 21

    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Gas Contracts

    CME Group Globex Labor Day Holiday Schedule

    Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Power Contracts

    AP: US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks

    CME Group – US Independence Day Holiday Schedule: July 2-6, 2021

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 22 SEPTEMBER: ASX pares losses; Santos, Woodside rebound | Australian 10-year bond yields jump to a decade high | ACCC report boosts confidence in Australia’s gas industry |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 September: ASX to drop as rates mantra rattles global markets | Here are 15 uranium explorers under the $50m market cap mark | Lithium, geothermal energy giant Vulcan eyes expansion with new exploration license |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 21 SEPTEMBER: ASX drops 90 points, hits 10-week low | Brainchip, Syrah Resources sink after ASX 200 ejection | Beam Communications looks to unlock latent value in ZOLEO JV through arbitration |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 21 September: ASX to open lower | Potential for another rate rise later this year | Dow -0.2% S&P -0.9% Nasdaq -1.5% |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 SEPTEMBER: ASX falls as flurry of rate decisions loom | UK inflation falls, beats expectations | Alderan Resources picks up seven projects in Brazilian lithium hotbed |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 September: ASX to slip, Instacart leaps on debut | Fed outlook in focus | RocketDNA CEO explains why ‘drone-in-a-box’ is a game-changer for the company and drones industry |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 SEPTEMBER: ASX drops, New Hope powers up on profit stand-out | Brent oil rallies above $95 a barrel for the first time since November as Saudi Arabia and Russia curb supplies | Castle Minerals building with high-grade graphite concentrates |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 September: ASX to open lower | US stocks were little changed | Focus on the outlook for interest rates. |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 18 SEPTEMBER: ASX closes lower as tech retreats; Silver Lake sinks on Red 5 stake | Oil pushes closer to $US95 | Venus Metals discovers multiple new lithium zones at Youanmi project |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
    • feedid-56
    • feedid-58
    • feedid-61
    • feedid-59
    • feedid-60
    • feedid-62
    • feedid-63
    • feedid-65
    • feedid-66
  • Charts

    Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 22 SEPTEMBER: ASX pares losses; Santos, Woodside rebound | Australian 10-year bond yields jump to a decade high | ACCC report boosts confidence in Australia’s gas industry |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 September: ASX to drop as rates mantra rattles global markets | Here are 15 uranium explorers under the $50m market cap mark | Lithium, geothermal energy giant Vulcan eyes expansion with new exploration license |

    Daily Game Plan

    Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 21 SEPTEMBER: ASX drops 90 points, hits 10-week low | Brainchip, Syrah Resources sink after ASX 200 ejection | Beam Communications looks to unlock latent value in ZOLEO JV through arbitration |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 21 September: ASX to open lower | Potential for another rate rise later this year | Dow -0.2% S&P -0.9% Nasdaq -1.5% |

    Daily Game Plan

    Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 SEPTEMBER: ASX falls as flurry of rate decisions loom | UK inflation falls, beats expectations | Alderan Resources picks up seven projects in Brazilian lithium hotbed |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 September: ASX to slip, Instacart leaps on debut | Fed outlook in focus | RocketDNA CEO explains why ‘drone-in-a-box’ is a game-changer for the company and drones industry |

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep

    Do We Have a “Good” Low or Is This a Setup?

    Do We Have a “Good” Low or Is This a Setup?

    August Opex: Will Things Get Ugly?

    Are We Setting Up for an Opex Bounce?

    S&P Sits at Key Support as Trends Turn Bearish

    Correction Continues As Recent Lows Are on Watch

    Bulls Are Looking for a Bounce After Slow Start to August

    The Ticker

    Stocks Under Pressure Early on Friday. Can We Get a Low?

  • Education
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    • Economics
    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: PINS Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Trading the S&P 500 and the S&P Futures

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Etsy Stock Tumbles

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Monthly Trading Time: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can Apple Stock Hit Record Highs?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can GOOGL Stock Stay Up?

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Home Analysis

Remember What We’ve Said About Mondays — Slow & Steady

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
June 5, 2023
in Analysis, Commentary, Futures, SP500, Stocks, Strategy, Tradechat
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Friday played out well for the bulls. Now they need to play defense too.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Remember What We’ve Said About Mondays — Slow & Steady

Friday played out well for the bulls. Now they need to play defense too.

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Our View

Trading is not getting easier, nor is investing — none of it is easy. From the very wealthy to the small investor, where do you invest?

Bonds, real estate, metals or the beaten down stocks that were victims of the Covid-19 pandemic that have never really rallied? Or do you just go all-in on the 5 to 12 market leading names? You can like the markets or dislike them, but one thing both parties can agree on is that the markets are going up right now.

One of the questions I get asked all the time is, “when is it a good time to buy stocks?” Call me a simpleton, but I always say the same thing. “After they sell off.”

Obviously, that’s not an easy thing to answer, especially when the rally is so narrow and only a few names. It’s also hard when you don’t know the other person’s risk tolerance or time horizon.

Our Lean

Today we should see significantly lower volume and trade. Remember, Mondays have been the low-volume, choppy action of the week so far this year.

Should the ES gap higher, my lean would be to sell the open/the early rallies. If the ES opens lower, I think 4275 should be a good support. Ideally I think we could see an early-week pullback.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded up to 4257 on Globex and opened Friday’s regular session at 4254.75. From there, it immediately rallied up to 4273.75 at 9:44 and then sold off down to 4249. rallied up to 4168.25 at 10:16 and that’s when I put this in the MrTopStep chat:

  • IMPRO: Dboy :(10:37:02 AM): going to 4286-90 today

The ES pulled back to just above the VWAP at 4257.50 and then made four separate new highs at 4270.75, 4277.50, 4286.25 and 4287.25, pulled back down to 4277.25 and then back-and-filled its way up to a new high at 4291.50 at 1:01. The ES made another new high at 4294 at 1:31, rallied up to 4297.75 at 3:47 and traded 4291.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.2 billion to buy and traded 4289.25 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES traded in a narrow range and settled at 4288.75 on the 5:00 futures close, up 60.75 points or +1.44% on the day.

In the end, everything went according to plan during the Fry-Day Jobs/option squeeze. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firmer than the NQ. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was on the high end of what we have been seeing at 1.88 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 81% Upside Volume (!)

  • Advance/Decline: 86% Advance (!)

  • VIX: ~$15 (On Friday it hit the lowest level since June 2021)

Like Our Lean says, it’s hard to rush out and be a full-on bull on the open and through the day, particularly given the action we saw on Friday. A move above Friday’s high and a flush below it could put some short-term “risk-off” in play as we did have a strong finish on Friday.

This morning’s push looks like we should be able to make a small trim in SBUX. Bonds/TLT could still give us a trade based on last week’s criteria.

S&P 500 — ES

The ES burst over the 4242 area, which was major resistance since October. Bulls now want to see this level hold. On an intraday basis, we want to see 4275-ish hold as support.

  • Upside Levels: 4300, 4310, 4336, 4382

  • Downside levels: 4267-75. I would really like to see this area hold on the dip.

SPY

How do we like that $427.50 extension? From here, keep an eye on Friday’s high. Above it puts the 61.8% retrace of the bear-market range in play at $429.61.

SPY Daily

  • Upside Levels: $428.75, $429.50 to $430

  • Downside Levels: $425.75 to $426.25, $425

SPY Hourly

Those are the downside levels in the SPY. The first levels is the H1 10-ema and the 50% to 61.8% retrace zone. The second level is the 78.6% retrace, one of my favorites, (but I doubt to see that today).

Here’s what it’s like for the SPX:

SPX

  • Upside Levels: 4290, 4311, 4321 

  • Downside Levels: 4260-4266, 4250

SPX Hourly

NQ

I would like that 14,200 to 14,250 area on the NQ. AKA prior support + the 10-day ema. Friday’s range could contain any meaningful move today, so watch 14,628 on the upside and 14,468 on the downside.

Bold are the trades with recent updates.

Italics show means the trade is closed.

Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)

** = previously mentioned trade setup we are stalking.

Down to Runners in GE, CAH, LLY, ABBV, AAPL, MCD & BRK.B. Now Add META, AVGO, UBER, CRM and AMZN.

  1. MDLZ — We got the gap-fill and 10-ema/50-day sma tag. I would trim ¼ to ⅓ on any push over Friday’s high of $74.36, so we can raise stops to B/E ($73 to $73.50). $75.40+ would be the next trim area.

  1. SBUX — Long from $98.90, defined low at near $96.50. So $96 to $96.50 stop work fine. Small trim here (¼ or so on any push over $100. Pre-market is fine.

    1. Ideally want a trim between $101.80 and $103, but have to play the cards we are dealt. Trim at $100 and raise stops to B/E.

  2. ** TLT — I don’t know if we’ll fill the gap at $99.65-ish, but I will get long if we trade the mid-$99s and it holds as support. Setting up.

Go-To Watchlist

Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders

Relative strength leaders →

  1. MCD, PEP & KO, WMT, PG — group has been faltering, though!

  2. LLY, CAH

  3. NVDA, CRM, AMD, AVGO

  4. MSFT, AAPL, META

  5. LULU, CMG, ELF

Relative weakness leaders →

  1. PYPL

  2. MET — worked really as a short, but I was taken out at B/E after we got our first trim

  3. CF, MOS

  4. PFE

  5. GLOB

Economic Calendar

 
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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