S&P 500 Futures: 2017 – A New Beginning And A New Year

The holidays are a fun time for most people, but they can be tough on others. Depression seems to pick up and problems get amplified. On Facebook I read a post titled ‘My First Christmas by Myself.’ When I read it I thought, man, this person needs a friend. Sitting by herself on Christmas Eve with no one to celebrate with. I didn’t ask why. I thought maybe her kids are all grown up and do not live close by, or maybe her husband passed away or is sick. Whatever the reasons are, it’s never good to be by yourself during the holidays.

That was never a problem when I was growing up. My mom and dad had ten kids; six girls and four boys. I remember when my brother Bill would come back from Notre Dame with a few of his friends and the whole house would light up. On Thanksgiving there was a traditional football game called the ‘Toilet Bowl.’ It sounds like fun, but the Riley’s were never ones to take losing sitting down.

While today’s Opening Print may still have yesterdays ‘ups and downs,’ this Opening Print is more about life and its ups and downs. As I have said many times, life and trading have a lot in common. But like I said, this is not about trading, this is about the human spirit. The will to live and the will to survive. You see, not all of us have had the great life we dreamed about.

Some wanted to be engineers, some wanted to fly planes, some wanted to be dog trainers, and some wanted to be doctors and nurses. Remember when we were little and our uncle and aunts, or close family friends, would say ‘what are you going to do when you grow up?’ Hell, most of us were still wearing jockstraps and ponytails and had no clue what we wanted to do, and even if we did, with life’s ‘twists and turns’ we more than likely lost track of what we wanted to be. Ah…So many dreams and so little time.

As many of you have heard me say, ‘I have been to the top of the mountain and to the bottom of the mountain, and I am now somewhere in-between.’ I did have dreams, and the main one was to go to college. I knew that, aside from trading education, was the only way to get to the top. I never went, and it is one of my life regrets. My older brothers and sisters went to golf college and the Art Institute, and my younger sisters and I were basically put out on our own when my dad lost his company and had to sell his house. That was when I learned about depression and its effects. Not my own, but my dad got so deep into it he was giving up.

My father was my hero in good and bad times. A Notre Dame grad, and on the boxing team in the Marine Corps. He was a bigger fighter that me or any of his 10 kids. He had a bad heart, and had half a lung taken out, and then he lost his company, his home, and his pride, but you know what? Slowly he started to recover, and it was not with the use of antidepressants. He took a lesser job and he went back to doing what he loved… selling printing.

Even when he didn’t have the cash he was still trying to get me to go to college, saying he would come up with the money, but I couldn’t do that. He was working too hard for too little and I was not about to apply any financial burden on my mom and my dad. They raised ten kids, they were older, and their health was going. Whatever he and my mom had left was for them, not me.

So, I hit the bricks. One day I drove my dad to work, parked the car, and started walking in the other direction, and that’s when I heard my dad say ‘son where you going?’ I turned back and said ‘the Board of Trade.’ I remember his big smile when he said ‘that’s the best thing I ever heard.’ I took a chance, hell I had no choice, so I went for it. Was it all ups? No! Did I make mistakes? Yes! Did I learn from them? Some I did, and some I had to learn the hard way. But through it all, my ups, my downs, and all arounds, I never gave up, just like my dad didn’t.

Is it always easy for me? No, it’s never been easy. I have always had to try harder than the other guy, and even then, sometimes I didn’t succeed. But again… I never gave up. I once told my cousin Bobby Riley, when he had all sorts of problems and was out of a job, that he ‘needed to reach deep inside his gut to find the strength.’ A few months later when he was back on his feet he thanked me for having faith in him. I told him not to thank me, it was his hard work that got him back up on his feet, that was just straight talk.

They say money is everything, but I say money won’t make you happy. I think success is everything; you can be successful without millions of dollars. You can pursue your dreams that you put off for the last 30 years. You can shake off the depression and you can wish for better days. I know some would say ‘I would rather have the millions and find out for myself,’ but again, that is not a guarantee of happiness. Happiness comes from within. It’s something you have to want. It’s something you can achieve, it’s just a matter of not giving up, or giving in. Like I said… I have been to the top and the bottom of the mountain, and now I am somewhere in-between, but I will never give up on trying to climb higher, nor should you.

Today is the first day of the rest of your life… Make the best of it, and always remember, life’s too short. Have a great 2017, and no looking back… only forward.

While You Were Sleeping

Yesterday’s trade returned to the quiet norm of a sub one million volume day with a total range of 10.5 handles. The regular session opened at 2245.75, up just a tick. The ES traded to a high of 2250.00 before grinding lower for much of the day, printing 2239.50, and settling off the lows at 2245.25.

Overnight global equity markets were mixed with a slight buy side bias in Asia, while Europe favored the sell side. The S&P 500 futures opened the globex session at 2246.25 and traded to an early low of 2244.75 before rallying for much of the night, trading as high as 2252.75 late in the Asian session. Since then, the futures have retraced back to 2247.75, last printing 2249.50, up 4.50 handles on the day with volume at 63k as of 6:34 am cst.

Last Call For 2016

Asia and Europe

In Asia, 6 out of 11 markets closed higher (Shanghai +0.24%), and in Europe 7 out of 11 markets are trading lower this morning (DAX -0.15%). Today’s economic calendar includes a 2-Yr FRN Note Settlement, a 5-Yr TIPS Settlement, Chicago PMI, the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, and the Bond Market Close: 2:00 PM ET.

Our View

Ah… the last trading day of 2016. It’s been a year of ups and downs and all arounds. My thought process is that part of the selling we saw this week is tied to today’s rebalance. Volume did pick up a bit yesterday, but was still under 1 million contracts traded. My guess is less people will trade today. There will be an initial move, and then the markets will go into a slow grind until late in the day when the ‘guys with the better seats’ show up. I do not really have any directional calls other than there could be some type of walk away trade going into the afternoon. The only problem is, I don’t know how long it will last.

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

• In Asia 6 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp +0.24%, Hang Seng +0.96%, Nikkei -0.16%
• In Europe 7 out of 11 markets are trading lower: CAC +0.14%, DAX +0.15%, FTSE -0.06% at 6:00am ET
• Fair Value: S&P -4.65, NASDAQ -0.31, Dow -69.68
• Total Volume: 913k ESH and 3.6k SPH traded