Friday’s S&P 500 futures trade started with only 116,000 (ESU17:CME) contracts traded on Globex. After the open, the ES had a small push down to the 2428.00 level, followed by some sideways price action, and then a pop up to 2437.75 going into 10:00 CT. The market leader was the Nasdaq 100 futures (NQU17:CME), which made an early low at 5762.75, 15 minutes after the 8:30 CT futures open, and then traded up to 5801.75 going into 11:00.
Friday’s trade was a great example of what MrTopStep calls ‘thin to win’. I spoke to a trader at CitiBank, and he said, “we have been seeing much more activity in tech stocks than we are anywhere else, and it’s been pretty much non-stop.” He then went on to say that “some of the same firms that were selling two weeks ago are buying back the tech stocks they sold during the FAANG sell off.”
After a little pullback, the NQ traded up to a new high at 58125.50, and the ES traded up to 2438.75. It seems like the price action between the ES and NQ are in lock step. The NQ pulls back a few points, and then the ES drops a little. When the the NQ pops, the ES goes for the ride.
At 1:00 CT, there were only 650,000 ES traded, with 116,000 coming from Globex, that’s only 534,000 in the day session. As the Russell 2000 rebalance neared, both indices sold off. The ES made a low at 2431.00, and the NQ backed off down to 5807.75 before popping back up. The NQ made a new late day high at 5813.00, and then both the ES and NQ dipped on the close as the MIM ended up showing $2.28 billion for sale.
In the end, the S&P 500 futures (ESU17:CME) settled at 2432.00, up 0.25 handles, or +0.01%, the Dow Jones futures (YMU17:CBT) settled at 21315.00, down 33 points, or -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures (NQU17:CME) settled at 5805.50, up 19.75 points, or +0.34%.
While You Were Sleeping
Overnight, equity markets in Asia closed traded, with the SHENZHEN Index leading the way, closing up +1.75%. Meanwhile, in Europe, all majors are trading higher this morning, led by the FTSE MIB index, which is currently trading up +1.59%. With crude oil up over 1%, the major movers overnight were energy stocks.
In the U.S., the S&P 500 futures opened the globex session at 2432.00, and found an overnight low of 2430.00 within the first 5 minutes of trading. From there, the futures traded higher, following suit with Asian and European stocks. An early high at 2437.00 was made just after the Asian open, followed by another new high at 2441.25, just after the European open. After that, there was a minor pullback to 2439.00, before the most recent high at 2441.75 was made, extending the overnight range to 11.75 handles. As of 6:30am CT, the last print in the ES is 2441.25, up +6.25 handles, with 100k contracts traded.
In Asia, 10 out of 11 markets closed higher (Shanghai +0.89%), and in Europe 12 out of 12 markets are trading higher this morning (FTSE +0.67%). This week’s economic calendar consists of 25 reports, 6 Fed speakers, and 16 U.S. Treasury auctions and announcements. Today’s economic calendar includes John C. Williams Speaking, Durable Goods Orders, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey, a 4-Week Bill Announcement, a 3-Month Bill Auction, a 6-Month Bill Auction, and a 2-Yr Note Auction.
Our View
It seems like the markets don’t know which way to go. They rally, they sell off, and then they rally again. There is a growing number of traders that think the next move is lower, but again, the main question is, what’s changed? In my view, not much. It also seems like 2328 has been a holding area, and 2439-2440 is where they bounce off of. That said, there are lots of stops above and below both spots. Our view is to sell the early rallies and buy weakness. Mondays are always a low volume ‘thin to win’ day.
PitBull: CLQ -29/-25 turns down on a close below 4066; ESU osc -2/10 turns up on a close above 243976; VIX osc -3/1 turns up on a close above 1071.
Market Vitals for Monday 06-26-2017
[gview file=”https://mrtopstep.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Market-Vitals-17.06.26.pdf”]
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
- In Asia 10 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp +0.89%, Hang Seng +0.79%, Nikkei +0.10%
- In Europe 12 out of 12 markets are trading higher: CAC +1.09%, DAX +0.82%, FTSE +0.68%
- Fair Value: S&P -2.66, NASDAQ +5.13, Dow -52.64
- Total Volume: 1.2mil ESU, and 1.4k SPU traded
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