Well, yesterday, the (ESM17:CME) was firm overnight, and then ran up to 2334.50, just 5.25 handles away from its all time contract high. Everything looked fine, then a sell program pulled the ES below the VWAP at 2427.50, followed by a buy program that pushed the ES back up to the daily pivot at 2432.00. After the next little dip, the ES traded back up to 2431.00 (lower high), then in came the second wave of sell programs that pulled the futures all the way down to 2424.00 just before 12:00 ct. After the low was made, the ESM17 rallied up to 2435, completing a MrTopStep 10 handle rule at 2:50 pm cst.
The MiM showed $350 million to buy early on, and the actual imbalance came out at $220 million to buy, causing a little selling on the close. Crude oil (CLQ:NYMEX) got totally crushed. It was a decent day for the S&P, but the highlight of the day came from the CLQ, which traded all the way down to 45.76 in the regular session, and then down to 45.66 after the close.
Like I said, it was a decent day for the ES, but Crude Oil ruled the day. In terms of the S&Ps overall tone, it is still having problems breaking out above the 2436 area, but after all the pops and drops, there are a ton of buy stops building up above. It’s my guess that anyone that is getting short for the Comey testimony is going to be part of the next upside stop run. As for the oil market, it looks bad, but I also think there could be a short covering rally at some point.
While You Were Sleeping
Overnight, equity markets in Asia traded mixed, but with an overall bullish tone. Meanwhile, in Europe, most of the majors are trading higher this morning, led by the FTSE MIB, which is up 1.60%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 futures (ESM17:CME) opened globex at 2431.50, and made a low of 2430.50 and hour into the session. Since then, the ES has slowly drifted higher, and made a high at 2436.75 a little before 6am CT. As of 6:30am CT, the last print in the ES is 2435.00, up 3 handles, with 98k contracts traded.
In Asia, 7 out of 11 markets closed higher (Shanghai +0.34%), and in Europe 9 out of 12 markets are trading higher this morning (FTSE -0.03%). Today’s economic calendar includes the Weekly Bill Settlement, Jobless Claims, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Quarterly Services Survey, EIA Natural Gas Report, a 3-Month Bill Announcement, a 6-Month Bill Announcement, a 3-Yr Note Announcement, a 10-Yr Note Announcement, a 30-Yr Bond Announcement, Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, and Consumer Credit.
Our View
Everything is headline driven, and I expect a lot of that today. Yesterday, we got a look at Comeys statement for today, so I am not sure what else he has to say.
Read Comey’s full statement here
Our view; we’re leaning toward higher prices. That doesn’t mean the ES can’t, or won’t, sell off at some point, but we think it’s possible we see an upside stop run either today or tomorrow. Only time will tell. Sell the early rallies and buy weakness.
PitBull: CLN osc -29/4 turns up on a close above 4590. ESM osc 17/10 turns up on a close above 245325, VIX osc 3/-1 turns down on a close below 981.
Market Vitals for Thursday 06-08-2017
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
- In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp +0.34%, Hang Seng +0.34%, Nikkei -0.38%
- In Europe 9 out of 12 markets are trading higher: CAC +0.43%, DAX +0.48%, FTSE -0.03%
- Fair Value: S&P -2.00, NASDAQ +10.69, Dow -44.43
- Total Volume: 1.4mil ESM and 2.7k SPM / 2.1k SPU traded
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