Thin To Win Holiday Markets
The S&P 500 futures (ESZ19:CME) closed on Monday at 3087.50, 11 points above its opening print of 3076.00, after closing Friday at 3090.50. Its trading range (3074.50 – 3090.50), if you can call it that, is sending out some signals. Remember, tops are more a rolling over then gaining velocity versus something quick and steep. That top print of 3,097.00 need be pierced, with conviction and soon.
Late in the day the ES ran up to 3087.25, but sold off down to the 3084.00 area as the MiM want from $344 million to sell, to $150 million to sell, to $21 million to sell. The futures traded 3083.75 when the final 2:45 cash imbalance reveal showed $44 million to sell MOC, then traded 3085.25 on the 3:00 cash close, and settled at 3087.75 on the 3:15 futures close, down -4.25 handles, or -0.14% on the day.
In terms of the days overall tone, most of the ‘real’ selling was done before and just after the open. After that the ES traded in a 3 handle range for 80% of the day. In terms of the days overall trade, 806,000 e-mini S&P futures traded, with 202,000 coming from Globex pre-8:30 CT open, meaning only 604,000 futures traded on the day session, making it one of the lowest trading volumes of the year.
How Tops Look
So it’s been about a week since we started talking about what a “top” looks like Get your cameras out folks, these charts are worth taking heed to. Remember, we are about 3% above a “millennial” mark; it’s bumping its head again with decreasing volume and daily ranges. After a “real” top people say, now why didn’t I see that? So, here’s your chance. Break through 3,100 with conviction, and I’m not talking single stock wonders that save markets, and I’ll get off my soapbox; otherwise watch; for you longs I hope I am wrong but I’m seeing what I need to see.
6E Inflection Points
Went long 6E at 1.10450 (6E 12-19) for many reasons, mostly technical. Follow the bouncing “gold bar”. If you follow my “point” the arrows I use describing a few screenshots often points to these. These gold bars, or “cells” represent the highest number of contracts traded in any column on the displayed chart. It’s been a pretty stagnant market quite frankly most everywhere. These gold cells are good indicators of inflection points. Regardless, take a few years and really understand this stuff or listen up; gold bar hit we went long, enough said.
Just had to include this screenshot on Natural Gas. We do not have a position; we are looking to get long again after making $0.58 on a $2.30 trade that took ten days. It happens, not often enough. Included this one as one of the most powerful technical charts in the world is an “island reversal”. Take the time to look it up; read about why they occur and more so what usually happens next. Again, it’s winter; snow doesn’t bring out those who use heat; wind and cold do.
Natural Gas
Made it to Texas in one piece and will be set up before the end of the week to handle the many emails we have received. We hope to be live on TradeChat by November 18th so keep watching. We’ll be running “free” until I’ve figured out how to use everything correctly. By the end of November, we’ll have it all figured out, I hope.
Keep emailing me at david@amstrdinggroup.com and let me know what you want me to highlight and teach. In the interim, thanks for reading what we post. Enjoy your trading.
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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