The S&P futures (ESZ19:CME) closed 3121.75 Monday, five points above its opening print of 3116.00 after closing Friday at 3118.25. Its trading range (3111.00 – 3127.75) remained about the same as days past, but it did close at an all-time high, and near the top of its range.
We are still short at 3120, but have not added. If there is something that impresses me, it is the number of days in a row that the close is above the opening print. People are talking the fourth quarter GDP numbers more and more; this is going to be interesting, might even spawn a little bond buying. Go ahead, trade ES, I’ll play elsewhere (most of the time).
Going into the final hour the ES had slowly crept up to the 3123 area, but started to turn lower as the MiM began to build to the sell side. When the final cash imbalance reveal came out showing more than $600 million to sell, the futures had traded back below the vwap to print 3117.25.
The ES would then go on to print 3119.75 on the 3:00 cash close, and 3121.75 on the 3:15 futures close, up +3.50 handles on the day.
In terms of the days overall tone, stocks traded higher, but they didn’t feel strong. In terms of the days trade; volume was weak, with only 980k mini S&P futures contracts traded.
I’ve got that sinking feeling. Is that the Dollar falling? Perhaps this is a final piece to the Trump Project? You see, it makes sense to bring manufacturing back, and follow it up with a decline in the value of the Dollar. I’ll take a 5% drop, but the world is in unison here, the ‘greenback’ has some tough sledding ahead. Look folks, trading ES is boring. Come over to the macroeconomic world; it’s fun and usually right.
Testing, one, two three, testing. That’s right, the Euro (6E 12-19) is playing hide and seek with the twenty-day moving average. You’ll find, after identifying which commodity futures we intend to watch, we use this 20-day moving average. To each their own, but with the histogram on the right-hand side, it works.
Send me an email at email@example.com and we’ll get you on board when I finally get my act together, if you want fifty plus years of experience. If for nothing else, the stories are killer.
Remember that sell on natural gas at 2.88 after buying it at 2.31? Remember I called it the “widow maker”? Just look at the chart. Tell me where you think it’s going.
How about them beans!? Patience is a virtue. If I was a trader, I would have been short at the top (and it was easy to see where that was). The only factor I’m interested in seeing is the planting numbers. Remember, there was uncertainty with respect to China for quite some time; plantings might have been reduced. If that is the case, then beans (ZS 03-20) are going to fly. That’s the one we watch; looking for a 900 – 905 entry long.
OK, I’m lazy (actually I’m busy with another project), and I’m not doing much of anything until after Thanksgiving. I was too old twenty years ago to do what I just did. Reason be known, I had to; couldn’t live without her. Think we’re going to take some time; life is an adventure folks; hope I can be a bit of a guide, there’s a great deal to give back.
By the middle of December, we’ll have it all figured out, I hope. Keep emailing me at firstname.lastname@example.org and let me know what you want me to highlight and teach. In the interim, thanks for reading what we post, and enjoy your trading.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.