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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 29 MAY: ASX to rally after US strikes debt deal | Resources Top 5: 3500% in 7 months – The WA1 Resources fairy tale continues |

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  • Charts
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 29 MAY: ASX to rally after US strikes debt deal | Resources Top 5: 3500% in 7 months – The WA1 Resources fairy tale continues |

  • Commentary
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    • MrTopStep

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

    ‘Thin to Win’ Is Today’s Theme

    3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

    Finally a Break Out of the Range. Can The Move Last?

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    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

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    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

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    • Reuters Business
    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    24X5 Options Trading Begins Sunday, November 21

    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Gas Contracts

    CME Group Globex Labor Day Holiday Schedule

    Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Power Contracts

    AP: US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks

    CME Group – US Independence Day Holiday Schedule: July 2-6, 2021

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 29 MAY: ASX to rally after US strikes debt deal | Resources Top 5: 3500% in 7 months – The WA1 Resources fairy tale continues |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
    • feedid-56
    • feedid-58
    • feedid-61
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    • feedid-65
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  • Charts
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 29 MAY: ASX to rally after US strikes debt deal | Resources Top 5: 3500% in 7 months – The WA1 Resources fairy tale continues |

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

    ‘Thin to Win’ Is Today’s Theme

    3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

    Finally a Break Out of the Range. Can The Move Last?

  • Education
    • All
    • Economics
    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
    • Trading Rules
    • Webinars
    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: PINS Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Trading the S&P 500 and the S&P Futures

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Etsy Stock Tumbles

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Monthly Trading Time: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can Apple Stock Hit Record Highs?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can GOOGL Stock Stay Up?

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MrTopStep
Home Analysis

The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
May 24, 2023
in Analysis, Commentary, Futures, SP500, Stocks, Strategy, Tradechat
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The budget negotiations are weighing on the S&P  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

The budget negotiations are weighing on the S&P

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Our View

I am really concerned that the ‘summer trade’ has already started and that the long slog we have been in may continue for an extended period of time. We had an upside pop last week to get us out of the range, but the trade has been frustrating since then and now we’re falling back into the prior range.

Like I have said repeatedly now, we also are not used to seeing the same ES prices printed over and over again. I wonder with all the money moving out of the US, if it’s weakening the S&P? Well we know one thing, on the days the ES does just over 1 million contracts, it generally creeps higher (thin to win) and in most cases on a big down day, trading volume increases to the 1.6 million to 1.8 million contracts range — which to tell the truth, is also low.

The ES used to do 2.5 to 3 million contracts a day and no one would blink an eye; its all-time volume high is 6.9 million at the height of the credit crisis. Since then, I don’t believe volume has exceeded 4.3 million in a single session.

If I asked you if there are more trading accounts back when I was on the floor vs. now, what would be your guess? Initially, I thought more back then, but then I thought about electronic trading and how anybody can open an account. The answer is, there are millions more online trading accounts today, (but my guess is only a small percentage are trading all day).

Our Lean

We were right about buying the lower open yesterday, as the S&P bounced pretty nicely after the open. However, it was a stubborn, slow rally into the NY lunchtime and the ES struggled all day.

I had the right idea about a pullback this week — saying “I think the odds of a pullback will increase later in the week” — but it came early. Maybe they have to juice up the shorts for the PitBull’s Tuesday low for this coming weekly expiration on Friday.

Our Lean: The budget negotiations are weighing on the S&P. The DAX is down 479 points this week. It looks like the only buyers are in the blue chips and oil. The ES isn’t even 100 points off its recent ~4227 high. It’s my guess that the negotiations drag on into the weekend.

You can buy the early weakness and sell the rips or just be patient and sell the rallies. On the upside, I’m watching 4166, 4183, 4195-4200 and 4225. On the downside, I’m watching 4140 and 4115-25.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded down to 4186 on Globex at 9:21 am and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 4187.75. From there, it traded 4185.25 and rallied up to 4198.50 — the VWAP — at 10:00, dropped down to 4186.50 at 10:16 and chopped around under the VWAP for the 2 next hour and 20 minutes when the futures finally broke down to 4175.50 at 12:50. After the low, the ES rallied up to 4186.25 and then broke down to another new low at 4168.50 at 1:31 and chopped around in a narrow range. The ES then sold off down to 4153 as the budget talks broke down.

After the low, the ES chopped in a 4156 to 4167 range as the early imbalance showed $180 million to sell. The ES traded 4163 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $400 million to sell, traded up to 4165 and traded 4158 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES pulled back to the 4156.50 area and settled at 4159.25 on the 5:00 futures close, down 45.75 points or -1.09% on the day.

In the end, it was a one-way street to the downside. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was weak but the NQ was weaker, down 1.22%. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume picked up as the day wore on with 1.62 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 43% Upside Volume

  • Advance/Decline: 38% Advance

  • VIX: ~$19.50

Getting some turbulence after yesterday’s decline. I don’t think the market is necessarily paying attention to the dollar (DXY) or 10-year yields (TNX), but they were a warning sign yesterday. The VIX is now up more than 20% in four days as our short-lived upside range break starts to fizzle out.

With the dip, the S&P is right back down into the zone that drove traders crazy just a few days ago.

S&P 500 — ES

4150-55 held yesterday’s low, but weakness persists this morning.

  • Pivot: 4155

  • Upside Levels: 4166, 4183, 4195-4200, 4225

  • Downside levels: 4140, 4115-25

SPY

  • Upside Levels: Bulls want this back above $415-16

  • Downside Levels: $412.50 is key (21-day sma and 50% retracement). $410

SPX

  • Upside Levels: 4170-75, 4185, 4195-4200

  • Downside Levels: 4125, 4100-4110

NQ

We’re at the 50% retrace of last week’s range and the 10-day ema. Let’s see if buyers materialize here.

If not, 13,580 could be in play.

QQQ

Same setup. 10-ema and 50% retrace on the daily.

Bold are the trades with recent updates.

Italics show means the trade is closed.

Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)

** = previously mentioned trade setup we are stalking.

Open Positions

  • Bold are the trades with recent updates.

  • Italics show means the trade is closed.

  • Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)

  • ** = previous trade setup we are stalking.

Down to Runners in GE, CAH, LLY, ABBV, AAPL, MCD & BRK.B. Now Add META, AVGO and UBER.

  1. CRM — Took time, but got our $207-$208 trim down, now down to about a 40% position after $212.50 touch. Probably down to ¼ position if we see $215-ish now, but want runners for potential push to $220.

    1. Raise stops to Break-even.

  2. MET — Short from $52.50 area. Looking to cover ⅓ around $51 and be out of ½ if we see $50 to $50.50.

    1. Can probably use a stop-loss of $53.50 at this point. Higher for those more aggressive.

  3. AMZN — Gave us our dip into the $113 range (+/- $1) and then traded $116+ for our first trim.

    1. Not in love with the tape, so I’m going to a B/E stop already. Get down to ½ if we see yesterday’s high again.

  4. PEP — As the S&P went offered, PEP went bid into the close yesterday, so the candle looks better than most of the session suggested. Still, we are long from about $185.50.

    1. On the upside, you’d love to see $189 to $190 to trim ⅓.

    2. On the downside, you can run a tight stop if you’d like, (like $184) or loose, (like $183). We should not see $183 if the stock is healthy (and it may not be, hence the stop!)

 

Guest Post

Topic: PTG /Taylor 3 Day Cycle

Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Markets were once again held hostage to the news flow out of DC regarding the Debt Limit negotiations, which only proved how our elected officials are totally dysfunctional. Traders got impatient and decided to take the sell-side, pushing price below CD1 Low, all the way down to 4150 handle,. This now places price back within the lower multi-day composite range. Prior range was 69 handles on 1.618M contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is now well below the CD1 Low (4186) and threatens a “failed” 3 Day Cycle. Bulls have a substantial hill to climb to recover this level. Of course anything and everything can happen, so we’ll maintain our discipline to stay in alignment with the dominant forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4170, initially targets 4185 – 4190 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4170, initially targets 4150 – 4145 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4205 PVA Low Edge = 4165 Prior POC = 4195

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 3 (CD3)

Thanks for reading,

PTGDavid

Go-To Watchlist

*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*

Relative strength leaders →

  1. MCD, PEP & KO, WMT, PG — group has been faltering, though!

  2. LLY, CAH

  3. NVDA, CRM, AMD

  4. MSFT, AAPL, META

  5. LULU, CMG

  6. FTNT

Relative weakness leaders →

  1. PYPL

  2. MET

  3. CF, MOS

  4. PFE

  5. GLOB

Economic Calendar

 
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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