Weely ESZ15 chart for the week of 11/ 23 / 2015 to 11/27/ 2015
Total volume during Wednesday’s pre-holiday trade was low. The session produced a 7.25 point trading range with the ESZ15 stuck in a 2 to 3 point range for most of the day. We spoke of the low volume chop, and thin-to-win environment, and we got more than we bargained for. While the stats were strong for Wednesdays trade, the session produced a modest 3.75 gain on the day. However, on the Thanksgiving Day globex session, the ESZ15 kept its steady climb higher as it managed to trade up to 2098.25 on low holiday volume, then when globex reopened for Friday’s session, the futures retraced most of that move as the world markets were heading into the Asian close and Euro open. It’s currently 6:15 am CT and the ESZ last traded at 2089.50, with the globex low at 2083.25, and the Thanksgiving Day high at 2098.25.
Heading into today’s ESZ15 session the stats for post Thanksgiving Friday are still strong. Over the last 55 years the S&P has closed higher 39 times. Like Wednesday, we expect today’s trading session to see extremely low volume, as most of the big investment firms and banks let traders take time off. We do not expect to see much more than a half a million ESZ15 contracts trade today.
Our view remains the same. Unlike last year when the SPX dropped sharply going into the first two weeks of December, we think the markets have already dropped several times over the last few months, and all the drops are doing is setting up several higher lows. With the S&P up 2% year to date we think the mutual funds will continue to push stocks higher right into the end of the year.
In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed lower (Shanghai Comp -5.48%), and in Europe 6 out of 12 markets are trading modestly higher (DAX +0.22%). There are no scheduled economic reports and the CME Group closes early. Bonds, currencies, and commodities all close at 12:00 CT, and the S&P closes at 12:15.
Our View: Like today’s Opening Print this is going to be short and sweet. The ESZ took out the buy stops I have been pointing out, and the high is exactly where I said the next set of buy stops start; above 2098.70. The next set goes from 2099 up to 2104-2106, and above 2106 the stops go right to 2112. Our view is the S&P is going up; buy weakness.
‘S&P 500 Futures; Not Your Normal Holiday’
As always; please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
- In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed lower : Shanghai Comp. -5.48%, Hang Seng -1.87%, Nikkei -0.30%
- In Europe 6 out of 12 markets are trading modestly higher : CAC +0.23%, DAX +0.22%, FTSE -0.09% at 6:00am CT
- Fair Value: S&P -2.14, NASDAQ -0.71, Dow -26.77
- Total Volume: 750k ESZ and 2.3k SPZ
[s_static_display]
No responses yet