3% 10 Year Note Yield Not In The Picture Right Now

Commentary, News

Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Contract Settlement Net Change +/-%
S&P 500 (ESH18:CME) 2789.00 +0.25 +0.008%
Dow Jones (YMH18:CBT) 25,238 -122 -0.48%
Nasdaq 100 (NQH18:CME) 7165.75 +41.50 +0.57%
Russell 2000 (RTYH:CME) 1605.90 +4.60 +0.28%

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

  • In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp -0.46%, Hang Seng +0.02%, Nikkei +0.66%
  • In Europe 6 out of 12 markets are trading higher: CAC +0.41%, DAX +0.02%, FTSE -0.19%
  • Fair Value: S&P +4.94, NASDAQ +28.18, Dow +30.06
  • Total Volume: 1.2mil ESH and 1.6mil ESM & 13k SPH, and 12.9k SPM traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET, Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET, Redbook 8:55 AM ET, and a 30-Yr Bond Auction at 1:00 PM ET.

S&P 500 Futures: Buy #NQ / Sell #DOW / MOC Buy $1.46 Billion

Global stock markets started out the week on a positive note following last Friday’s upbeat jobs report. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.9%, and South Korea’s Kospi added 1%, sending both indexes to their highest finish in five weeks.

The S&P 500 futures rallied all the way up to 2805.25 during Sunday nights Globex session, and sold off down to 2792.50 just before Monday’s 8:30 CT bell. The first print of the day came in at 2795.00, followed by a trade up to 2802.25, and then made four lower highs before trading down to 2792.25, 1 tick above Fridays high at 2792.00. After another set of lower highs, the ES ran sell stops down to 2783.75, and then bounced back up to the 2793.00 area.

That last rally couldn’t hold, and the next move was back down to 2784.25. After the low was in, the MiM went from $503 million to buy to $896 million to buy, and the ES traded back up to 2794.24, and then up to 2797.00 when the MiM increased to $1.46 billion to buy. After the imbalance came out, the ES sold off, traded 2790.00 on the 3:00 cash close, and went on to settle at 2789.25 on the 3:15 futures close.

In the end, the ES had a good late day run up, but it never got back up to the early highs, nor did it hold up going into the close. The MiM caused a late day buy, but the MOC algo’s jammed the retail longs going into the close. There was also a big rotation. The big ETF and mutual funds were buying the Nasdaq and selling the Dow all day. Clearly, the big push up to 2805.00 used up a good share of the ES’s buying power.

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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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Danny Riley (2130 Posts)

Danny Riley has worked in the futures and options industry for 38 years, including the CBOT’s bond room, where he worked for several of the Market Wizards. He went on to build the largest volume desk in the S&P 500 Index Futures, serving some of the largest banks and hedge funds, the UBS program trading business, and some of the world's top individual traders. As a leader and co-creator of the MrTopStep IM-Pro Trading Room, he shares trading ideas and breaking market news live from the floor with our other professional traders and new traders eager to experience the power of collective intelligence. Join us today and get the edge only social trading can give you.


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