WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03122024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Stocks moved mostly higher in early trading on Friday but showed a notable downturn over the course of the session. The major averages pulled back well off their early highs, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing a particularly steep drop. Downturn on the day, the major averages all moved lower for the week.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Fridays' trade set up Modays action. Perhaps all time highs just were not in the cards. At least not for Friday or Monday. Over the weekend it looked as if prie was going to hold a bid. Then at 6:00 am price probed the S1 Floor Trader Pivot as a sight bid enters in. Price rallied up to just under weekly pivot and the Last hour trade from Friday.
Another move down to test S1 again at 8:10 am as a second bid creaps in.
Price opens and plunges down past S1 about 10 to 12 handle or so. By 11:10 am price craws out of it's rutt. At 2:55 am price challenges the Weekly pivot and looks as if the bulls are going to get the job done. If not during CASH then perhaps Globex.
Price closes strong at the close. It looks like the selling pressure if off the market. At least for now.
During Globex price retraces seventy- eight percent (78%) of the loss from 2:55 pm rally high on Friday and the 10:10 am from Monday's low.
For now, it's a bouce. Perhaps today price will be able to close the gap and take price higher.
Ideal, I'd like to see the 5155 handle get recaptured and held. I'm bullish but the 10 day MA has held along with the other stacked MA's.
If the bulls case is going to hold, ideal would see the 5177 handle hold. Pehaps today, price could take it higher.
Since the clock is muddy due to the daylight time change, we can't really used the edge of the clock. However, the best place to has taken a low would have been at the 10:30 am low.
Could you have held it to the close. Of course. And you had every reason to get long the market. Price was unable to take price lower. The down move had wore itself out. Bears droped the soap and bulls picked it up and had the home court advantage.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you you might be curious when the best time to consider a long position:
After the second test of the S1 pivot at 8:10 am, price opened and plunged down past S1. However, by 11:10 am, price had crawled out of its rut. A trader looking to get long the market may have seen this as a sign that buying pressure was building and entered a long position at that point, with a stop loss placed below the recent low.
In all cases, the trader should have used proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop losses to limit potential losses and not risking too much of their trading capital on any one trade.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S1H with the spill odds down.
News: CPI at 8:30. All times EST.
Last Night: After recovering 78% of the loss from Friday's last hour rally high, price has started to drift down holding at the 5/8 (62%) retracement.
Edge: No edge yet. The time change and muddy the clock and the contract is changing.
There has been a change in the force. At least in the Day Light Savings time. It will take a few days.
A weak or two for the force to realign itself. Till then your TS's and roundies. Clock muddy for now.
7/8/9 AM: Holding just around 68% retracement
Today: Need to see a strong showing by the bulls else the bears will start to hit the bid. (same today)
Bulls Want: 27, 57, 77
Bears Want: 05, 90, 78
Globex: 18 handle trading range on 138 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 15.08
Shape of the day: Due to time change, clock may be muddy.
Honing: Spill down, loupie loop, LAST HOUR ODDS HIGH.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Holding low, waiting to see direction. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Holding low, waiting to see direction. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Unsure of direction and sit out the trade. OUT
Pre Opening: After the news, bears took the jump ball and started offering down. This gives a potential secondary test from yesterdays potential selling climax. Will need to see how CASH trades at the open for next direction.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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