WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03272024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After an early move to the downside, stocks fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Monday but largely maintained a negative bias. The major averages all finished the day lower after ending last Friday's trading mixed. The steep drop came after a report from the Financial Times.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
I went with IFFY and the day was IFFY, that is until 3:30 pm. Then it was not so iffy. The LAST HOUR was low and the MID AM was low. It was a series three day. That would make yesterday S3L day. The high is the mid pm low. Notice the high at 2:30 pm was unable to recover half of the loss.
If you were long waiting on the rally, it was not going to happen. That was you last opportunity to get out of your longs and get short the market.
As 'Momma got thrown' from the train, traders were scrambling to discover what the news was. I'm still not sure what it was. Still price did.
At least you could expect a retest of the current day's low. Price is working off the rally from last week run. Price has pushed back past the 50% retracement. Now, it's 62% retracement. Bulls have yet to recover the weekly pivot. That's my first sign. The bullish bear demarcation line.
The trade was nothing burger day. I'm going with S3L day. Tomorrow is S4H unless it is not. Volume is low. All time lows. Holiday week with second string kids trading.
After 3:30 pm price dropped through the daily S1 and S2 pivot. If you were looking to get short the best place was after the afternoon trade was unable to retrace the previous rally at the mid pm high. That's the place to get short the market. If you held to the close, you made a little change.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a short position:
Based on the information provided, a seasoned day trader trading the eMini futures could have put a short position on to get short the market after the afternoon trade was unable to retrace the previous rally at the mid pm high. This would have allowed the trader to take advantage of the downward trend that followed, as price dropped through the daily S1 and S2 pivot after 3:30 pm.
Additionally, the trader could have waited for a retest of the current day's low, as this would have provided a clearer signal for a short position. The trader could have set a stop loss above the high of the day or above the weekly pivot, depending on their risk tolerance and trading strategy.
It's important to note that day trading involves significant risk, and traders should always use proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop losses and taking profits at predetermined levels. Additionally, traders should always be aware of market conditions and be prepared for unexpected news or events that could impact the market.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S4L IFFY with the spill up.
News: EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: The clock should be back in syncy. It's iffy today.
7/8/9 AM: Seeing some supply at the Weekly Pivot 5292 handle.
Today: After retracing for the past three days, we could see a bid (same today)
Bulls Want: 96, 05, 20
Bears Want: 81, 72, 48
Globex: 17 handle trading range on 108 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 13.08
Shape of the day: After shaking out the weak hands at the close, price is back to the same resistance. The B team is trading today on a holiday week.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, MID AM HIGH, lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Added some longs at the close. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Added some longs at the close. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Did not see an edge all day. OUT.
Pre Opening: Holding on the the Weekly Pivot S1 5283 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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