Charles St Research – $7 CPL
Buyer Beware: The rise (and fall) of Bitcoin
Two likely scenarios are about to play out for the world’s leading cryptocurrency in the next few months.
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Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:
| Contract | Settlement | Net Change | +/-% |
| S&P 500 (ESZ18:CME) | 2911.50 | -9.75 | -0.33% |
| DowJones (YMZ18:CBT) | 26,419 | -101 | -0.38% |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQZ18:CME) | 7590.25 | -5.00 | -0.06% |
| Russell 2000 (RTYZ17:CME) | 1695.20 | -19.30 | -1.13% |
Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:
- In Asia 8 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -0.54%, Hang Seng -0.36%, Nikkei -0.99%
- In Europe 9 out of 13 markets are trading lower: CAC -0.02%, DAX -0.03%, FTSE +0.27%
- Fair Value: S&P +4.64, NASDAQ +26.83, Dow +14.11
- Total Volume: 1.30mil ESZ & 433 SPZ traded in the pit
Today’s Economic Calendar:
Today’s economic calendar includes the Weekly Bill Settlement, Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET, GDP 8:30 AM ET, International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET, Retail Inventories 8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories 8:30 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET, Robert Kaplan Speaks 2:00 PM ET, Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET, Jerome Powell Speaks 4:30 PM ET, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM ET.
S&P 500 Futures: Fed Jacks Rates For Third Time in 2018, More Hikes To Come
The S&P 500 futures have been under selling pressure as the US / China trade wars heat up. After making four separate lows around the 2928.00 area over the last few sessions, the ES has made six separate pushes to the upside, but all have failed.
During Tuesday nights Globex session the ES traded down to 2921.50, traded 2922.25 on the 8:30 CT futures open, and then traded up to 2926.50. After that, the futures sold off down to 2920.25, then rallied up to 2930.00 just before the fed’s rate decision. Total volume at 12:56 was shockingly low, only 515,000 futures contracts had traded.
Just before the rate hike the ES was trading at the 2927.50 area. From there, it popped up to 2933.50, pulled back a few handles, then shot up to 2936.00. After the ‘pop’ the ES sold back off down to 2924.00, and then rallied up to 2929.75 at 2:26 CT before selling off down to 2920.75 as the MiM went to $1.7 billion to sell. The futures again sold off down to 2907.50 just after the final MiM came out showing $3.1 billion to sell MOC, and then bounced up to the 2912.50 level before printing 2912.00 on the 3:00 cash close, and settling the day at 2911.75, down -9.50 handles, or -0.33%.
In the end, the tone was about one of the rules that I often expound upon, which is to fade the first reaction. Yesterday we had the stats out in the room that 5 of the 6 Fed meetings since Powell became chair have closed lower, and that in the current cycle on FOMC days when rates are hiked, we usually see new lows on the close, and when Powell took the podium yesterday it was all over for the S&P’s.
Daily HotSpots
HotSpots are times during the market trading session that for the past XX days have consistently moved in one direction or the other. These HotSpots are published each morning pre-market. The next day, a results post is also published and weekly a summary post.
CAUTION: This data is under development and provided only for research and teaching purposes
If you have questions about HotSpots you can contact us at info@mrtopstep.com.
Normal
Normal is a straight trading day count. A 5 day normal on a full-trading week would include Monday through Friday. A 5 day normal on a Monday holiday week would be the previous week’s Friday, skip Saturday, Sunday and holiday Monday and then Tuesday through Friday.
Early close days are considered non-trading in our normal count and are therefore skipped also.
| 09-27-2018 | 5-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1121 | 1135 | 100 | 0.01 | 0.83 | |
| CL_F | short | 1052 | 1103 | -100 | -0.02 | -1.46 | |
| ES_F | long | 1104 | 1130 | 100 | 0.01 | 15.00 | |
| ES_F | short | 1528 | 1552 | -100 | -0.01 | -19.00 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1104 | 1130 | 100 | 0.01 | 91.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1007 | 1031 | -100 | -0.01 | -59.75 | |
| YM_F | long | 1104 | 1128 | 100 | 0.00 | 84.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1526 | 1550 | -100 | -0.01 | -206.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-09-20″,”2018-09-21″,”2018-09-24″,”2018-09-25″,”2018-09-26”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 11:21 until 11:35 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 5 days.
See All Of today’s HotSpots Here
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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