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    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

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    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 29 MAY: ASX to rally after US strikes debt deal | Resources Top 5: 3500% in 7 months – The WA1 Resources fairy tale continues |

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    • MrTopStep

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

    ‘Thin to Win’ Is Today’s Theme

    3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

    Finally a Break Out of the Range. Can The Move Last?

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    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

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    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Trading the S&P 500 and the S&P Futures

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    • Reuters Business
    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    24X5 Options Trading Begins Sunday, November 21

    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Gas Contracts

    CME Group Globex Labor Day Holiday Schedule

    Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Power Contracts

    AP: US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks

    CME Group – US Independence Day Holiday Schedule: July 2-6, 2021

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 29 MAY: ASX to rally after US strikes debt deal | Resources Top 5: 3500% in 7 months – The WA1 Resources fairy tale continues |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
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  • Charts
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 29 MAY: ASX to rally after US strikes debt deal | Resources Top 5: 3500% in 7 months – The WA1 Resources fairy tale continues |

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

    ‘Thin to Win’ Is Today’s Theme

    3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

    Finally a Break Out of the Range. Can The Move Last?

  • Education
    • All
    • Economics
    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
    • Trading Rules
    • Webinars
    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: PINS Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Trading the S&P 500 and the S&P Futures

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Etsy Stock Tumbles

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Monthly Trading Time: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can Apple Stock Hit Record Highs?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can GOOGL Stock Stay Up?

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Home Analysis

Fed’s on Tap. Big Ranges Expected

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
March 22, 2023
in Analysis, Commentary, Futures, SP500, Stocks, Strategy, Tradechat
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Fed’s on Tap. Big Ranges Expected
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Hello members! As (hopefully all of) you know, we have switch newsletter providers! This will allow us to seamlessly add more features and create more value down the road. That said, there is a learning curve when you flip the “go-live switch” — even if we have been practicing on the new system! 🙂

So for that reason, we will continue to send from both providers this week, making sure we can work out the kinks and to make sure every premium sub is receiving the new newsletter.

Thanks for bearing with us through this transition. It will definitely be worth it!

The Sender Name should show up as: “The Opening Print — Mr. Top Step”



Our View

A few weeks ago, the market was “certain” that the Fed would raise rates by 50 basis points at the current meeting. That’s after Chairman Powell’s decisively hawkish testimony, where he laid the groundwork for a larger-than-expected rate hike and and higher rates for longer than expected. 

Then the regional banking crisis happened. 

Now the market expects a softer approach from the Fed, which includes a rate hike of just 25 basis points. That’s probably the smart move. 

“No hike” could give the markets a sugar-high rally, but ultimately says to the market that the banking crisis is more severe than we think. A 50 bps hike creates worries about more stress on bank balance sheets. 

25 basis points allows the Fed to save face without causing too much worry. It’s the press conference at 2:30 we have to look out for…

Our Lean

I don’t know that yesterday could have gone much better. Selling the opening rally into the 4020 to 4030 resistance area “(and preferably 4025-4030)” gave traders a couple of quick scalps of 10 to 20 points. 

However, the second part of the Lean was to buy the pullbacks, particularly if the ES was “very constructive for the bull case” by staying over last week’s high of 4009. Just look at the chart below and try not to look at it “in the past” but instead, save it, download it — whatever — and try to apply some of the logic and levels to your trading going forward. 

This is how we often look at price action throughout the day (Globex high/low, last week’s high/low, etc). Of course, it helps to have a plan going into it the day: 

On to today. 

Paraphrasing my friend Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, he said that “the S&P 500 has been up 5 of the last 8 Fed rate hike announcement days, with an average gain of 0.69%. It’s been down 5 of the last 8 on day after, average S&P 500 loss of –0.91%.”

Our Lean:

The ES is “cautiously” holding up over the 4025 area during Globex, but there will likely be some fireworks later today. As you can see from the stats at Trader’s Almanac, today and tomorrow are likely to be bumpy. The only problem is, we don’t know which way this one is likely to go; no one does!

Many traders would like to see a higher open and/or a push higher into midday trading so they can exit their longs or take partial profits. I know we would like that on a few of our trades. 

In any regard, I think the upside move is likely limited into the Fed event. It always seems to stall out as nobody wants too big of a position into a binary event. I am likely going to wait until 2:00 to put on any real trades. 

Remember, the algos love to run the stops, which are often on/near the edge of the day’s range. Look for more of the same today!

MiM and Daily Recap

If you want the recap, just look at the graphic above. The ES faded from the 4030 area shortly after the open, held last week’s high near 4009 and bounced. It struggled to regain the Globex high of ~4021, but in the afternoon it put in a higher low near 4010, charged through 4030 resistance and traded up to 4040.75 at 3:50. 

The cash imbalance showed $863 million to sell, grew to more than $2.4 billion for sale and the ES traded 4038.50 at 4:00. At 5:00, it settled at 4039, up 52.75 points or 1.32% on the day. 

In the end, it was a “choppy grind higher” — just like the day before. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was bullish but sluggish. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was very light at 1.44 million contracts, 31% below its 20-day average and its lowest volume since Feb. 13. 

Technical Edge — 

  • NYSE Breadth: 85% Upside Volume

  • Advance/Decline: 78% Advance

  • VIX: ~$21.50

S&P 500 — ES 

  • Downside levels: 4020, 4009 (last week’s high), 3975-80 & 3948-58.

  • Upside Levels: 4045-50, 4067.50, 4082, 4100, 4130. 

SPY

SPY retraced 50% of the decline and now the Fed’s on tap. On the upside, bulls want to see the SPY regain $400+. On the downwide, bears need to get the SPY back below last week’s high. 

  • Upside Levels (SPY): $399.50 to $400.50 (call it $400), $404, $407.50

  • Downside Levels (SPY): $396 to $396.50, $394, $392.50, $390. 

SPX

Same as SPY, with the following levels: 

  • Upside Levels (SPY): 4000-4010, 4045-50, 4075-80

  • Downside Levels (SPY): 3964 (last week’s high), 3940-45, 3915-20

AMZN

If only the Fed weren’t in play today, AMZN would be a prime setup. Look at that daily + weekly-up building near $101, along with the 50% retrace. 

A rotation over this level opens the door to $104, then $108-$110. 

On the downside, risk could be clearly defined down to ~$98 for conservative bulls and ~$95 for aggressive bulls who use a wider stop. 

Unfortunately, the Fed makes this very tricky. I will likely wait until we hear from them before deciding on AMZN here. If it triggers early on, I might go with a ¼ position just to get it started and manage from there. Vague, I know. But Fed days are notoriously tricky and large position sizes wreak havoc on our mental capital. 

Open Positions 

  • Bold are the trades with recent updates. 

  • Italics show means the trade is closed.

  • Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)

  • ** = previous trade setup we are stalking.

  1. FSLR — Down to roughly ½ size here after trims near $206-07 and $210-11. 

    1. B/E stop and look to get off more between $213 to $215 if possible.

  2. AAPL — There was a decent entry on the intraday charts, but regardless of how traders bought AAPL, it closed strong on the day. 

    1. Aggressive bulls can use a stop-loss of $153-$154. Conservative bulls may go just below yesterday’s low (roughly $156-ish). 

    2. As for upside, it all depends on timeframe. If shorter term, anything over yesterday’s high warrants a trim. If longer term, you’ll want $160+ and ideally something close to $164. 

  3. DKS — Long on the daily-up at $146.65 — Trim ¼ on any push over yesterday’s high and be down to ⅔ or ½ if we see $149-$150. 

    1. Stop at $143 — and keep the Fed in mind here. If nervous/concerned, trim down on size and/or be quick to take profits if opportunity arises. 

Go-To Watchlist

*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*

Relative strength leaders → 

  1. NVDA, AMD, AVGO

  2. CRM, GOOGL

  3. MSFT — Nice setup on H4 chart

  4. PANW, FTNT

  5. FSLR

  6. GE

  7. DKS 

  • AQUA

  • ULTA

  • AEHR → volatile!

  • MELI

Economic Calendar

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!

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