WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03152024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Following the significant rebound seen during Tuesday's session, stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Wednesday. The major averages spent most of the day on opposite sides of the unchanged line before closing mixed.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Due to holding the H contract trade since January 2, I decided not to trade yesterday. I had not reset the chart the the M. I felt we were going to have a change in price behavior. I just wanted a day off. Sure the PPI would move the needle. As I was preparing the AM TURN I saw that Globex had taken price higher up to the R1 Floor Trader Pivot and was holding it.
I thought my lands. They got over their skies. I wanted to put a short on. I really did. The spirit was willing but the flesh it was weak. So, I sent off my newsletter and went about my day off. As always you never have a day off when the market is on. I took a quick look and thought my lands…
The clock is not in synch due to the time change. So it's your levels, T&A, and roundies. I sure miss WB. I can only imagine what he would have thought about this new reality. Let's talk Floor Trader Pivots. Price opens at the daily pivot. You can see S1 is just about in line with the previous day's low. It does not hold it goes down to R2.
In fact, it stops within a tick. The dippers normally save the day but not yesterday. Price rallies back to R1 and gets checked. At about 12:30 pm price starts to drift down to check the current intraday low of day. It is held at 1:30 pm and it rallies back up to R1.
At about 2:30 pm you can see it's not the bulls day. Price starts to drift down again. By 3:00 pm we've already tagged a new low of day. And where do you think price turned around on a dime? Well, it was more of a tick. That's right R3, twice the range of the previous day.
By 3:40 pm price gets a bid as all the ALGOS close their shorts for the day as some big retail firm pukes up their breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a short position:
Based on the information provided, it seems that the best place to put a short position to get short the market would have been at the R1 Floor Trader Pivot. This is because the price opened at the daily pivot, and then began to drift down, eventually reaching the R1 level. The fact that the price was able to hold at R1 and then rally back up to R1 again suggests that there was significant buying pressure at this level, making it a good spot to enter a short position. Additionally, the fact that the price drifted down again after 2:30 pm and tagged a new low of the day at R3, which is twice the range of the previous day, suggests that there was a significant change in market sentiment and that the bears were in control.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S4H with the spill down.
News: Empire State Manufacturing Index & Import and Export Prices at 8:30, Industrial Production at 9:15, Consumer Sentiment at 10:00. All times EST.
Last Night: Yet again, GLOBEX get's over shelf of supply at trades back up at the 5228 handle.
Edge: No edge yet. The time change and muddy the clock and the contract is changing.
There has been a change in the force. At least in the Day Light Savings time. It will take a few days.
A weak or two for the force to realign itself. Till then your TS's and roundies. Clock muddy for now.
7/8/9 AM: Saw supply at the 5228 and trading back down to the 5212
Today: Need to see a strong showing by the bulls else the bears will start to hit the bid. (same today)
Bulls Want: 28, 43, 62
Bears Want: 03, 90, 78
Globex: 20 handle trading range on 158 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 14.19
Shape of the day: Due to time change, clock may be muddy.
Honing: Waiting on clock to syncy
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Exited due to contract change, waiting to see direction. OUT
Tuna (30m 1+D) Exited due to contract change, waiting to see direction. OUT
Sardine (5M-1D) Short around 2:15 pm. Exited at low. OUT
Pre Opening: For now, still holding the 5222 handle. Will need to see how CASH trades at the open for next direction.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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