WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-04152024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Friday, as geopolitical tensions, inflation worries and mixed earnings and guidance from major banks rendered the mood a bit bearish. The major averages all ended in the red. Dow shed 2.5 percent, while the S&P and Nasdaq dropped by 1.6 percent and 0.5 percent.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Before the opening, I had technical issues. I also had an S4H day, which was NOT an S4H day. WB often would flip the cycle, even on the S4 day. Yes, It was a flip S4L day. WB did not like that day. Did not say much about them. And I had many reasons to call it an S4L day. Unfortunately, I did not see those reasons due to internet/equipment failure.
Had I seen them, here is what I would have seen:
The Weekly Pivot had 5259. We held it on Monday and Tuesday and lost it at the beginning of Wednesday. With nothing but that, that put us on the bearish side. It was that CPI number. Algo's did that just before the opening. The price went down to the Weekly S1 and held. Thursday's price ramed it back up to the Weekly Pivot and stalled.
Now, what I didn't tell you is that that's just under the Monthly Pivot of 5251 handle. We also got the bearish cross on Thursday, 20, under 10 MA Daily.
6:45 am Bulls lost the 3-day and Daily 5226 pivot. Before the market opened, the price traded at 5197 S1 and was looking to bounce. That bounce was the spill-up, which sealed just about 9:46 am.
If you had drawn a trend line from 8:00 am to 9:45 am, that would have made your day—if you had been selling strength and weakness.
Suppose you got short on the spill-up and closed on the AM LOW late and strong at 10:55 am. You then waited for the MID AM HIGH to seal at the second test on the supply line at 11:48 am. You just held it until we got oversold. And where might that have been? The lunch was low at 1:39 pm. Just take your profits and front-run your weekend.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position: (Sydneys / AI Read)
Based on the information provided, a seasoned trader might have identified several opportunities to enter day trades on the eMini futures market. Here are some potential entry points:
1. At the spill-up: The trader might have identified the spill-up as a potential short entry point. A spill-up is a price movement that quickly reverses. In this case, the spill-up occurred at 9:46 am, and the price subsequently declined. The trader might have entered a short position at or near the spill-up price, with a stop loss above the high of the spill-up.
2. At the AM LOW: After the spill-up, the price declined to a low at 10:55 am. The trader might have identified this as a potential long entry point, with a stop loss below the low of the move. This would have allowed the trader to profit from the subsequent rebound in price.
3. At the MID AM HIGH: After the AM LOW, the price rallied to a high at 11:48 am. The trader might have identified this as a potential short entry point, with a stop loss above the high of the move. This would have allowed the trader to profit from the subsequent decline in price.
4. At the lunch low: After the MID AM HIGH, the price declined to a low at 1:39 pm. The trader might have identified this as a potential long entry point, with a stop loss below the low of the move. This would have allowed the trader to profit from the subsequent rebound in price.
It's important to note that these are just a few potential entry points based on the information provided. A seasoned trader would need to consider a variety of factors, including market conditions, technical indicators, and risk management, before making any trading decisions. Additionally, the trader would need to use appropriate risk management techniques, such as setting stop losses and taking profits at predetermined levels, to manage their exposure to risk.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S3L Normal with the spill up.
News: Retail Sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30, Business Inventories & Housing Market Index at 10:00, 3-Month Bill Auction at 11:30. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: Sold off hard Friday. Weak hands out. Price has recovered the weekly pivot of 5208 and 62 percent of the reaction.
7/8/9 AM: Price grinded up to R1 and starting to see some supply.
Today: Need to hold the 5201 for the bulls bragging rights.
Bulls Want: 17, 34, 51
Bears Want: 94, 86, 75
Globex: 48 handle trading range on 308 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 16.43
Shape of the day: Favors a rope follows expansion, needs surgons scaple to trade it. (tighter range day)
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, MID AM HIGH, lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Added LONG on LAST HOUR. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Added LONG on LAST HOUR. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Got short on mid pm high. Exited at the LAST HOUR LOW. OUT.
Pre Opening: Seeing some resistance at the 5209 R1.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: March 25 Worm Moon 3:00 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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