Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price gapped up on the open as the Trade Vic Gap Rule (TVGR) took control. Trend day tendencies drove price higher to fulfill and exceed 3 Day Cycle Objective (3822.75). Range was 75.75 handles on 1.381M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): 3 Day Cycle Statistic has been fulfilled, so momentum may still carry price higher, though we will be anticipating more of a consolidation type day to provide for absorption of recent gains. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3830, initially targets 3840 – 3850 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3830, initially targets 3820 – 3810 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
Thanks for reading,
Polaris Trading Group
In the Tradechat Room
The early MIM called a sell for the MOC and we slid right into the selling at the 15:50 mark as 2.5B to sell was on the meter. After thinking about it there was about a 10-point move to the downside to close the books for the day.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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The world as a whole is improving with the number of new daily cases dropping from over 700K to about 500K
While the U.S. is easing along with most of the rest of the world, there are some hotspots that are on the rise, particularly in Northeast Africa and Southeast Asia.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
Consumer Spending in the United States increased to 13004.74 USD Billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 12924.72 USD Billion in the third quarter of 2020. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3804.00||Opening Print: 3799.00|
|Low: 3760.00||High 3835.75|
|Volume: 190,000||Low: 3799.00|
|ES Settlement 3826.00|
|Total Volume 1.37 M|
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date February 2, 2021
February Now Up 3.5% In 2 Days
After trading in a 44.00-handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s cash session at 3799.00 which was also the daily low and rallied from the first print through the morning up to a daily high of 3835.75 just after 11:00 CT. Midday, the S&Ps would trade sideways remaining in a ten-handle range until 2:30 when selling began to push the index to an afternoon low of 3813.75 before settling at 3826.00, up 60.25 handles on modest volume of 1.37 million contracts. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the open and holding into the late morning.
Regaining Lost Ground
The short seller plus the positive tech earnings have created a 185-point rally in 2 1/2 days. That is how this game is played, catch everyone offside and Jane the ES straight up. It’s critical in this pumped-up QE /stimulus beefed-up U.S. economy to not forget to ‘buy the dip’.
Our view, after such a mammoth rally one would think a pullback is in order but who’s to say the ES doesn’t go ripping through the contract high at 3862.25? Our lean, you can sell the early rallies and buy the mid morning pullback or just be patient and buy the pullbacks. I have an ES upside objective of 3920. You can take it from there.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.