Yesterday was FED DAY. A lot of big traders have been wanting to short this top. Some other traders say “Big Money” is on the sidelines wanting to get in. Nothing but a oneway trade. Two peat. Can we make it a threepeat like the Broncos? Today? I see bigger players taking out the offers. And then we lost the 80’s. Keep your hands inside or trade smaller it’s going to be a wild ride!
Yes, I think we did. That’s what I said in the PROS and NUMBAHS Thursday in the AM TURN. And it looks like they did. John Elway would have been proud…The FED minutes were released and they did what we expected. The market responded with a thud at first and then a rally to test to high with a third lower high. (not a bullish sign)
Looking Forward Friday, November 6, 2020
This day is a drop-dead for counting votes in some states. Who knows the outcome? I’ll leave it at that…
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(2:24:08 PM) : I amazed at the stats they put on these votes. If it was an investment security they have to have a disclaimer. Past vote does next indicate the next vote. I get it but it’s still interesting in this digital age. If it was a coin it’s be 50 / 50 but with a vote they get fib ratios of 62 / 38
FEED: @DecisionDeskHQ :(2:25:08 PM) : PA Presidential Election Results Trump (R): 50.31% (3,231,161 votes) Biden (D): 48.54% (3,117,148 votes) Estimated: > 95% votes.
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(2:36:51 PM) : In all my life I never considered the political affiliation of the area of my domicile I chose. When I first came to Colorado decades ago it was red and now it’s turned blue due to the freedom to smoke pot
IMPRO: [trader] :(2:36:55 PM) : Words of the day
We will have to see if buying pressure can come in and lift the offers past 3520 and beyond. I’ve been bullish on the outcome but we got some issues with the time change. So we’ll have to give it a few weeks.
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 0 points Monday (yes not levels were given I had some technical issues that day), 4 points Tuesday, 4 points Wednesday, and 4 points Thursday. Total for the week 13 points, that would be $650 on 1 lot and $1,950 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe.
In the Tradechat Room
In our Tradechat room we have the update on counts all day as the blue mud flow slowly creeps across the electorial map. That has more effect right now than the MOC. Yesterday’s 15:50 number was about 1B to sell which sent the market up only to retrace on the 15:50 candle. We all need a weekend. Enjoy yours!
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Checking in on the world and the fight against CV19, we continue to move higher, now solidly over 500K new cases a day.
Daily deaths are aournd 7.3K surpassing our April daily death rate.
UK lockdown is beginning to show a slow in new cases.
France is still struggling.
Germany is slowing the pace but not rounding yet.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT / Chart of the day / Bitcoin / Nov 6, 2020 –
Late September GMTT gave a buy signal on Bitcoin at 10745 with an initial upside target at 12699.
Once that target was reached, we saw a little pullback but already gave a next upside target of 14805 and higher.
The high overnight was 15955.20 its highest level since January 2018.
We think that the rally is overstretched, and a sudden pullback is imminent.
An intraday close below 15000 gives a sell signal.
First downside target 13780.
Yesterday’s chart of the day was Gold.
We gave a buy signal above Gold (DEC) 1898 and our short-term upside target of 1942 was reached.
Next short-term upside target 1958.
We suggest raising the sell stop to 1923.
For more info: Global Macro Technical Thoughts
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3508.50||Opening Print: 3492.25|
|Low: 3428.25||High 3522.50|
|Volume: 350,000||Low: 3488.75|
|ES Settlement 3512.00|
|Total Volume 1.62M|
S&P 500 Futures RECAP – Trade Date 11/5/2020
First 5-Day Win Streak Since August
After trading in an 80.25-handle overnight range leaning higher, the S&P 500 futures opened Thursday’s cash session at 3492.25, up 55.75 handles, and went on to trade the daily low of 3488.75 in the opening minutes. From there, buyers jumped in and after a quick rally to what would amount to the high of day at 3522.50 around 9:15 CT, the trade quieted down. The ES went on to trade back below the open, making a late morning low of 3489.00 just after 11:00 then got a lift into the noon hour.
The rally would continue through the early afternoon until the S&Ps hit a midafternoon high of 3521.50 just after 1:30 and then sold off down to 3494.75, where once again buyers came in late in the session to push the index back up to 3512.25 before settling at 3512.00, up 77.00 handles or +2.24% on total volume of 1.62 million.
In terms of the overall price action, there were opportunities from both sides of the market, but those who leaned toward buying dips enjoyed the path of least resistance.
Fear And Loathing
I almost always have something to say but I really don’t today. I think it’s fair to say that we all knew one side or the other (mostly Trump) was going to contest the voting results and that’s exactly where we are today. I know the Republicans would love to see some states switch from blue to red but in the end, I don’t think it really matters, Joe Biden will be that next president of the United States. Personally, I just want this process to move forward but I do have some concerns. The first is raising taxes, the second is open borders and the third is ‘free anything’ and the idea that it’s ok to offer free insurance and pay off student loans. If you’re asking why I’ll tell you. Despite a strong stock market the economy is still fragile and raising taxes will not help job growth. I am very concerned about COVID19 and I do not think a vaccine is coming anytime soon. Trump continues talking about a vaccine that will be out by the end of the year but my expectations are considerably lower. That said, no one wants to be a ‘bummer’ on Friday so I will finish by saying that ‘politics and trading’ don’t mix and they don’t. What we have learned is that when everyone is selling it’s usually time to start buying.
Our view, the ES has rallied almost 300 handles in less than 5 sessions. I am short in the ES from 2518.50 and see 3470-73 as the next support area. Not all the news is good in ‘Mudville’. The ES has already rallied sharply with no pullbacks. Our lean would be to buy a sharply lower open. Friday’s are tricky, they tend to show you the ‘price action’ early and come back to it late. Again my guess is for another day of rips and dips. I doubt the early rally will hold but if the ES is holding late in the day, prepare for another ‘Later Friday Rip’.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.