Market Review
This year just keeps getting better and better. Just saw over the wire that Trump and Wife have tested positive. And I thought the only shoe to drop was the Hatfields and McCoys were at an impasse on voting for the Cares Act.
The whole voting situation has been turned upside down and inside out. Colorado has brought online voting resolution by texting. As you know, the market does not like uncertainty. This week has been closing out the month and quarter. And then opening the last quarter and a new month.
September is over. We have no other months to blame for erratic behavior. It was an S3H day and our notion is the market would end weak. It did. Now Globex has gaped down to 3312 handle. It will probably test the 3300 handle soon.
As I’ve been saying in THE AM TURN, the jobs number will be the catalyst to move the needle for the bulls or the bears. By my eye, I did not see any heavy distribution at the highs, just no one willing to start lifting offers.
Looking Forward Friday, October 2, 2020
Let’s see how the market reacts to Trump’s positive test and what the Jobs Numbers have in store. With this type of gap and volume, I can not see where the selloff would be intense. Most of the zing has been taken out. This day ends the cycle.
Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER! Trump’s tweet was 12:54 AM · Oct 2, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
Recovery time: How long does it take to recover from COVID-19?
Early research suggested that it could take 2 weeks for your body to get over a mild illness, or up to 6 weeks for severe or critical cases. Newer data show that recovery varies for different people, depending on things like your age and overall health. (that gives us some context).
Let’s see how CASH responds along with the Jobs Number.
Some folks are probably thinking “good on him” / “he deserved it” due to this week’s debate. Which is sad!
It may give him more visibility and media presence, perhaps in a positive light. We will just have to wait and see how the market digests the news. The clock that I keep is showing a bearish ending for the week. And it’s been bearish!
We had a good week this week. Sure, Wednesday’s loss took out Tuesday’s gain. I’m ok with that, cause it’s just trading. You can NOT predict the outcome of a random event. Trading is a series of trades not just one trade.
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe.
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MiM
The 14:00 candle when the early indications are released saw a tremendous sell just 7 seconds before the top of the hour. Tea leaves indicating a sell. The MiM never really solidifies that view. The 15:50 reveal was a decent 1.2B to buy, but broad-based as only 54% of symbols had buy imbalances.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid Corner:
While everyone pushes the doom and gloom of the new case numbers, we still don’t see that rise in new deaths. The US fluctuates between 300 (weekends) and 1200 (Fridays) and has stayed at that rate pretty much through September. Above are some problem states that are spiking and struggling.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3388.00 | Opening Print: 3377.25 |
| Low: 3343.25 | High 3387.50 |
| Volume: 300,000 | Low: 3350.00 |
| ES Settlement 3366.75 | |
| Total Volume 1.48 M |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 10/01/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
S&P 500 Futures: First Trading Day Of Q4 ‘Rip & Dip’
After a 43.75 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened yesterday’s cash session at 3377.25, up 38.25 handles and traded up to what would amount to the high of day in the first half-hour of the session at 3387.50, two ticks from the Globex high. Then the S&Ps would sell-off down to 3355.75 for the morning low just ahead of 9:30 CT. For the rest of the morning, the market would range, eventually making it back to the open for what would amount to the noon high.
The afternoon saw a lower grind into 1:30 when the ES would print the low of day at 3350.00 before rallying to a final hour high of 3375.00 and then settling the day at 3366.75, up 27.75 handles or +0.85%.
In terms of price action, it was mostly about trading the range as the market never really trended. The best rewards came to the sellers of the early morning high. Volume was relatively weak with 1.48 million contracts traded.
OUR VIEW:
Jobs Friday
The S&P 500 has closed higher for the second consecutive quarter, continuing a historic stock-market recovery that few predicted during the March sell-off. The S&P and Nasdaq hit a string of records in the third quarter despite record unemployment caused by the Covid19 pandemic that shut down ‘thousands’ of businesses across the US. The S&P and Dow Jones gained 8.5% and 7.6%, respectively, over the past three months. The big rally capped the best two-quarter performance since 2009. Both indexes are up more than 26% since the end of March. The NASDAQ surged 11% in the third quarter and is up 45% over the past six months, its best two-quarter gain since 2000. Today the Labor Department will release the September jobs report. The consensus is employers added 875,000 new jobs following 1.37 million in August. I think if the non-farm payroll number comes in lower than the consensus the ES and NQ will fall.
Our view, I am taking a very guided approach today. While I ‘think’ the markets go higher the NQ has rallied 940 points since last Thursday’s low and the rallies have been failing the last few days. Our lean is if the ES gaps sharply lower we would be a buyer on the open or the first drop below the open and if it gaps higher we would look to sell it. After that, I want to get a look at the price action and look for a possible late Friday rip. October is known for some spooky moves so remember to use stops, you never know when a big drop may come.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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