The last few days have been devastating to the force. It’s like millions and millions of free voices have been silenced… And that’s all I got to say about that!
If you pull up a 30-minute (I like 37) chart I’m sure you’ll see a trading range. And rightly so. The high of 3824.50 was made on January 8th just after the bigger players took some off. Earlier that day the low bar was set at 3775 and that’s been the trading range for the past five days.
Yesterday by my eye, I saw the bigger players taking some off and getting out at the tops of the rallies. Fangs were selling at the open, the other groups waited until later in the day. And looking at the tight 13-handle range would appear to confirm that notion. I wrote that about noon yesterday. And an hour later…
That was at least until 1:00 p.m. when the bid no longer held and the day ended in a 29=point trading range. I did a video this past weekend outlining the action from the Composite Man. It’s long. It’s two hours long. I left it all on the mike. Sure I need to cut it down. I guarantee you will learn something new. I outline how the market timed the mayhem last Wednesday and what the Bigger Players were doing and how they were doing it.
I also talk about some old school hardcore Richard D. Wyckoff principles how you use effort vs result and show you how to see it in volume and price movement. If you want to watch it here it is:
WB’s Emini Clock S4H Turn by Turn for January 6, 2021 (2 Hours Full Cut)
The stimulus news has already been released and how will 2T (trillion) play out over the coming months? Trump has been silenced and Biden is waiting in the wings but he’s not taking the A train. The market got what it wanted. What more does it need?
If the price does take out the existing offers, I would prefer to see it on increasing volume. Will need to watch the price expansion on that high volume. Yesterday only showed expansion to the downside…
Looking Forward Friday, January 15, 2021
Globex took price lower. Twenty handles lower down to the 3765 handle. As I write this we have a bit of a bid. Of course, that can change quickly once the price gets closer to the 7:30 to 8:00 a.m. marker as the boys get off their helipads in Manhattan.
Yesterday completed the cycle and today starts a new one. It’s a Friday and I hear there is a big event planned for next week. We’ll just have to let price behavior play its hand and show what opportunities are in store…
The Fed may be pulling back and the banks may not be able to bring it to kick the season off. How will the bonds play out in the coming weeks/months once the whipping boy is gone? Will certainty be so certain? Will the disappointing jobless numbers and consumer confidence start to leave a mark?
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 28 points Monday, 12 points, Tuesday, 6 points Wednesday, and 16 points Thursday. Total for the week 62 points, which would be $3,100 on 1 lot and $9,300 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe. After you subscribe drop me an email at email@example.com we’ll set up a time to talk and help you discover how using WB’s clock can give you the gift of timing that you need in your trading life.
In the Tradechat Room
An anemic NYSE MOC resulted in an 8 point selling candle at 15:50 on a day that saw very little range. That had suggested a selling MOC which didn’t show up until the15:55 dquotes sold hard and produced a billion-dollar deficit on the sell-side.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Israel continues to lead the world in percentage of residents vaccinated, now approaching 25%. There still has been no visual impact on the daily new cases. The US has only vaccinated 3% so we have a long way to go before we see the vaccines slow the curve.
Since yesterday we continue to see improvement in the slow down of growth. Yesterday we had 24 states with new cases rising, today we are down to 14, a drop of ten. States that are seeing a falling number of cases has increased from 5 to 10, that’s a good thing. Northern California is starting to ease restrictions as the infection situation in the north has improved.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of The Day
GMTT – chart of the day – Coffee – Jan 15, 2021
Today, a selection of the Soft Commodities that we update three times weekly in our GMTT Research Report:
Coffee tested again our target of 127.00
We still have the next target of 134.00
However, since there is a projected high we exit the trade this morning with a 9% profit.
A close below 122.75 gives a sell signal.
Sugar is on a buy signal from 14.90 and the high so far was 16.75.
A close below 15.90 cancels the buy signal.
Cocoa is close to electing our signal to go long above 2565.
The suggested sell stop is 2415.
GMTT publishes three weekly its GMTT research report covering the following:
Global Indices, VIX, a selection of stocks, Treasury Bond, Commodities, Soft Commodities, Currencies, and Bitcoin.
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|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3817.75||Opening Print: 3810.25|
|Low: 3804.25||High 3816.00|
|Volume: 165,000||Low: 3786.25|
|ES Settlement 3792.25|
|Total Volume 1.13 M|
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date January 14, 2021
S&P 500 Futures: ES Now Lower on the Week
After trading in a 13.50 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Thursday’s cash session at 3810.25 and traded up to the daily high of 3816.00 in the first hour before reversing to sell down to a morning low of 3803.00. Midday the futures rallied back to 3812.75 before sell pressure continued into the afternoon pushing the ES down to 3786.25 in the closing minutes before settling at 3792.25, down 11.50 handles on a total volume of 1.13 million. In terms of price action, it was all about selling the early morning low and holding into the closing minutes.
Biden’s Relief Bill
It’s a funny world we live in. Yesterday my view was to buy the pullbacks and the ES went down all day. The mid-month rebalance was a sale, not a buy. The rotation was buying the Russell2000 and selling the ‘everything else’. After a small rally off the open the ES, NQ and YM could not hold a bid. The overall tone turned weak and stayed that way into the close and on Globex overnight. At 6:39 am the ES was down 17.5 handles.
Our view, an extremely overbought S&P, uncertainty surrounding the Covid19 vaccine distribution, the 3-day weekend, and fear of upheaval next week during Biden’s swear in seem to be weighing down on the markets. Our lean is to go slow. I have not had a good feel. JPM, C, and Wells Fargo report this morning. If the futures open lower I may buy the open but as I said… I am going slow.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.