Market Review
Disclaimer: For educational use only. I’m not dispensing financial advice. We are having an intellectual conversation (you and I) on the topic of trading the Emin futures using the Lens of Wyckoff Principles and the Eyes of WB’s clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday, every day!
Mendelbaum, Mendelbaum, Mandelbaum, it’s go time! The bulls brought it like no other could. Lifted the offers like little soldiers. When traders were the most bearish, that’s when the bulls proved them wrong.
By my eye, we’ve recovered that rally from Thursday when politics was the trend of the day. Sure we sold off. Blew up a lot of accounts. And some friendships between traders. Twitter feuds…
The market did not care about that. Once, the feds released what they were going to do, and the CPI agreed, and APPL / whatever supply chain was clouding the day… Well, you get it. If you were trading GLOBEX Wednesday. If you were waiting for that pullback to the 20ma or the 50ma, you might have missed out!
It’s not the best 45 (I’ve reduced it to 32) minutes you’ll have in your life. However, if you are wanting to see how the spill is sealed or turn is sealed, invest 32 minutes to discover how using trend lines timed to WB’s clock will give you better timing in your trade location. And it also explains why Thursday was nothing but an SU day (STRAIGHT UP).
HERE’S THE URL https://my.demio.com/ref/ImoumtZGEIKkn583
View it during the lunch SLOG or the evening when you have more time to focus.
Looking Forward to Friday, October 15, 2021
Price has respected each dip down from Thursday’s morning low. Once price took out that long-term supply line it never looked back.
There is talk we may have some stock buybacks MS to name a few. Traders are optimistic and looking for that 4500 up to 4550 handles. Not a fan of moving averages but the daily has taken over the 50 on the top side.
Offing Events: The debt ceiling was kicked till December. Trillions are waiting to be voted on. Delta virus has made a dent. The country is coming undone at the seams. September / October may just be the catalyst for the truth to be revealed.
When the trend is in WB’s clock is your friend. If you have not subscribed take the jab today. It’s less than a cup of coffee each trading day. What more proof do you need? Click the red button below to SUBSCRIBE to the AM TURN NEWSLETTER.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the TradeChat Room
Market On Close: Top a nice trend up day with a nice buy MOC.
Check out all the Market Closing action in our daily post
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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SpyGate: Bots bearish on the open and AM session came round to bullish in the afternoon.
Check out our Daily SpyGate Post
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Baxter
Baxter is our new AI trading helper. This data is early, new, and not very well tested but we want to share some of our findings. We are concentrating on the SP500 which should benefit ES futures and SPY traders.
Last Trading Day:
High: ~15:50 (MOC)
10:00 – 12:00 ~50% (not sure)
Low: ~09:35
09:30 – 10:00 15% (right)
12:00 – 15:30 80% (wrong)
Today:
High:
10:00 – 12:00 59%
12:00 – 15:30 20%
Low:
09:30 – 10:00 75%
15:30 – 16:00 21%
Chart of the Day
Growing disparity is seen in U.S. earnings, GDP estimates
Comparing estimates for U.S. earnings and economic growth leads to “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an engima,” Tavis McCourt, an institutional equity strategist at Raymond James Financial Inc., wrote in a report Tuesday. While S&P 500 Index profit projections for 2021 have held up, he wrote, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow Index for the third quarter has tumbled. The S&P 500 estimate rose by 1.9 percentage points from the end of July through last week to 45%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. During the same period, the GDPNow estimate sank to 1.3% from 6.1%
Our View
Wednesday’s post-Fed reaction immediately sent the ES above the prior day’s high, but then the futures backed off and traded mixed for the rest of the session. Yes, it finished higher, but not in a powerful type of way that showed the bulls were in full control.
Thursday was different and bulls did exert their control.
The ES settled at 4355.25 on Wednesday night, opened Thursday’s Globex session within half a point and the rally began. By the 9:30 open, the ES was at 4395, up 40 points or about 1%. But the bulls left no doubt, jamming the ES higher in six of the first seven 30-minute windows, and 9 of the first 11.
The ES did settle into a range between 4421 and 4430 for much of the afternoon, before popping to new highs going into the close, hitting 4431. The move continued into 5:00 pm, with the ES eventually settling at 4435.50. That was up almost 80 handles or 1.83% vs. the prior 5:00 pm settlement.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, bulls left no doubt who was in control during the day — they took the ball and ran with it. In terms of the day’s overall trade, 1.22 million contracts were traded, slightly less than the prior session and below the 20-day average of 1.65 million.
Our View
As you know, I have been writing about a low going into the October options expiration. Nailing the low in a month full of weakness isn’t easy, but as I said, I remember the 1987 crash and I remember other October selloffs, but I also remember how they would bottom.
While October is known as “spooky” for the stock market, it’s also known as “the bear killer.”
The Ned Davis stats were good yesterday and they are good today. I will probably hate myself, but I’m not interested in the word ‘sell’ whenever I am looking for a big sea change. Our lean is for higher prices. Buy the dips, as 4450 could come fast, then 4480.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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