We are in the wake of another round of trillion-dollar expenditures and folks are talking about devaluing the dollar as China and Russia scheme to unpeg the dollar with their own. What does Wall Street do? What did Nero do while Rome burned?
Not sure if folks know if a Trillion = a million million (1,000,000,000,000 or 10 exp12).
And we are going to push 7 T’s to 11 T’s real soon.
Trump’s Border wall was around $8 billion — $12 billion tops — Trump’s 576-mile border wall is expected to cost nearly $20 million per mile. As long as the Fed smiles toward Wall Street before the Tsunamis hits, it’ll be right as rain… You could build 50,000 miles of border wall = 1,000,000,000,000 divided by 20,000,000
According to the 1963 Boundary Agreement, the length of the U.S.- Mexican border is 1,933 miles. By the U.S. Geological Survey the length of the U.S.-Canadian border (excluding the Alaskan border) is 3,987 miles. What are we missing here? Perimeter of the United States is just 8,878 miles? Across from sea to shining sea is’t only 2,800 miles?
What did the market do? As long as the Tech Titans do not get themselves underwater, the media will be Ok reporting the going’s on here on planet Earth.
You just can’t make this stuff up. And CME is going with micro futures on bitcoin and Wealth Advisors start to recommend to the uber affluent. OH, and you can buy a Tesla with one too! And 5G is coming to a light pole near you…
The market. Wednesday I had projected 4050 as a potential low and on Globex price tickled 4052.25 handle. I guess they don’t know what a big even is.
It’s been on a tear more like a slow trot. The 4062 held and was the launching pad for higher highs and higher lows. What does Globex do overnight? Get over their skis. Get way over their skis at the 4092.75 handle. I can hardly get used to writing 2021 on my checks let alone a big 4000 handle in the Emini. And PEONS are tickling the 4100 big even?
CASH brought it down to (yea I had that level) 4073 by 10:30 marker. I saw a 38,000 at 4077; 30,000 at 4076; 36,000 at 4075; 13,000 at 4074; and finally 7,000 at 4073 handle.
That’s 124,000 base holding the bid, or bag holding as my good old departed friend PQ Wall might have said. A 45 minute base from 9:45 to 10:30 marker. The counts I had were indicating 4083, 4087, and 4090 potential move up (higher highs and higher lows) as each accumulation wave worked itself out.
I use a tape reading chart. Just the way the Barker lounger trader boys in the 1930’s traded off of. I’ve outlined every turn in Wednesday trade. Total for the day 4 points from the spill. 10 handles from the AM HIGH to MID AM LOW, 10 handles from AM LOW to lunch high, 4 handles from lunch high to past mid pm low.
28-handle profit. Using the Lens of Wyckoff and the Eyes of WB!
I’ve gone from spoken word to the typed word. It’s about 3021 words, very clear, very engaging and just right Grammarly says. It’s a twelve minute read with 4 Misspelled words, 9 Confused words. That’s a shout out to WB to those who knew and loved him!
But what did I do? I made it too big to email. I’ve got to turn it into a PDF file.
If you are interested in seeing/reading how the old school Barka Lounger boys in the 1930s might have seen the market, understand that was the 4052 low just before CASH in New York City opened up.
Just click here to get it today (it’s chocked full of twists and turns with tape reading terminology/technology—you just can’t get anywhere else!)
All we need is an email address and no phone number!
At 15:10 we seem to be topping out the at 4089.50 handle. Yea that sounds about right. That was the last level to work out in the Accumulation Zone around 45 minute base from 9:45 to 10:30 marker I mentioned above.
I’m typing this in real time. It’s 15:55 and Emini’s have pulled off their highs mentioned above and finding support at the 4086 level. Yea, that’s about right!
And now at Settle what does price do? It pops out of that temporary supply and prints a GLOBEX 4093 HIGH. Onward and upward babby!
Looking Forward Friday, April 9, 2021
What can I say? Real time (RTE) volume on the Emini was 824,228 lots…
If this was an intraday trade I’d say; “Unless this Emini goes on upward and its volume increases as it advances, you should look for an opportunity to go short.” And this is not going up on volume. WB would say; “Shorts are getting thier ina.” (he was not PC). It’s 4:59 EST and we are trading a 4098 now?
As I write this, GLOBEX has been playing both sides against the middle. High 4102.50 Low 4087.00, currently trading 4092.25. No lean there! How high can this go? It might be more like limbo? How low can it go today?
We are trading at previous day GLOBEX high. Just in the middle of the run after close push to take out overhead supply. Price dipped down into RTE 4087 and found a bid on the retest. Trading in a near 10 handle trading range with 4098 to 4087 as boundaries.
We are trading at exactly the half way mark from the RTE low and GLOBEX high 4087 handle. If we lose that, the lunch SLOG looks pretty tasty 4082 handle. Then perhaps the 4078/75 if selling pressure persists. Or it could just rip on to higher highs with little to no volume?
PPI at 8:30 and nothing much else. Earning season is next week with the banks kicking it off. Yesterday Nymex crude oil prices were lower and trading around $59.30 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.646%. So that’s the new norm?
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 4 points Monday, 2 points Tuesday, 20 points Wednesday, and 15 points Thursday. Total for the week 41 points, which would be $2,050 on 1 lot and $6,150 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I consider myself fortunate to be able to keep WB’s Memory and Trading Legacy alive today. For traders now and in the future who will benefit from his savvy wisdom and trading techniques. I really do feel that the clock can separate you from where you are now to where you want to be. But, it’s is NOT EASY TO LEARN!!!
Most folks/traders who subscribe and never contact me fall by the waist side. And some who I’m still friends with still can’t’ get it! It’s not easy. But it’s worth the effort.
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe. After you subscribe drop me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org we’ll set up a time to talk and help you discover how using WB’s clock can give you the gift of timing that you need in your trading life.
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Chart of the Day
Retailers use “shrinkage” when referring to goods or money that should be available, but isn’t. The word might also describe what U.S. retail stores are facing. More than 80,000 are likely to shut down during the next five years, according to estimates that UBS Group AG’s retail analysts made in a report Monday. Clothing and accessory retailers are most at risk, as UBS sees them accounting for more than 25% of closings. The estimates reflect assumptions that e-commerce will climb to 27% of sales in 2026 from 18% last year, and that the amount of orders filled at retail locations will double to 20%.
Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early
It’s 2:15 ET and the S&P futures (ESM21:CME) have been stuck in a 5-point range for the last 2 hours. The total day range 14.5 points, the high is 4087.50 down to 4073.00 total volume is 730,000 contracts traded with 178,000 coming from the overnight Globex session. Let’s face it, folks, the summer stock slow down has come early. PitBull said that ‘it’s never a good sign when the stock market/stocks make new all-time highs on declining volume’ I remember hearing that years ago but like many old trading rules QE, historically low rates and trillions in stimulus have been a game-changer for buyers. Just look back at the credit crisis and how the quantitative easing programs pulled the markets out of the slump and pushed the S&P to new all-time highs. While we are lost past the credit crisis the fed has continued using its tools. Remember when everyone said the markets would sell-off after the QE programs? Some people thought the markets would crash and while we have had some decent sized sell-off, the markets recovered within days. Fast forward to the Covid19 stock market crash but unlike the ‘billions’ that were being used in the credit crisis, today the government is spending ‘trillions’ I understand that nothing goes up forever but I think the current rally is just the beginning of something even larger. Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan said yesterday “I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the U.S. economy will likely boom and could easily run into 2023” Dimon also pointed to U.S. consumers, who used stimulus checks to reduce debt to the lowest level in 40 years and stashed them in savings.
The ES finished on its highs of day after the MIM showed $1.2 billion to sell. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm all day with bids showing up on every small dip. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was low with a total of 960,000 futures traded with 178,000 coming from Globex making total day session volume ONLY 782,000 futures traded on the day session. Clearly, the summer stock market slowdown is coming early.
Our view, ‘thin to win’ has taken over the stock market. The S&P closed on a new contract high (up 3.1% for the month) and its 19th new high for the year and the Nasdaq is only 1.5% off its February high. It seems unstoppable right now. Our lean, you can sell the early rallies and buy weakness or just follow the trend and buy the pullbacks, I prefer the latter. If the ES is at or near its high at 2:30 CT there is a high probability we see a ‘late Friday RIP’ 4120 on TAP.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS