These days, anything can and will happen in the market. I’ve been saying; My notion is that eventually, everyone is going to get this. If not, you have already been exposed. Mask, no mask, you choose. It should be your choice, however…
If Trump wins, technology will not get shoved down your throat. If Biden wins, open real wide! Whoever wins, it’s the 5G towers that allow the Internet of things real-time computation. And that’s what’s needed for automated flying drones, self-driving cars, and power meters. Sure, you’ll get to watch some videos and play games for a while.
The market is uncertain and probably will be till the November 3rd outcome. Free Money and Virus counts are the main drivers. It will constantly drift down until a bid enters in. Folks are balancing economic welfare with biological survival. Yes, they are! Make American Great Again, Again, or Make American New Again. Those are the two options.
Now, Thursday they found a bid. Volume ( As I indicated in the PROS and NUMBAHS ) The AM HIGH comes in at 10:02 that’s early and weak. That’s telling you something. Volume increases on the 5 minute chart up is equal to down. Not what you want to see for a bullish run. Unless you love to read a bunch of words, you really need to watch this video.
Ok, you are still not watching the video? Here’s how it ended. Now, we had some climatic volume. Twice the normal volume of 2.1 MM instead of the 1.1 MM baseline. And today they talked about bargain hunters/recovery rallies. No, it was big money that entered in and started lifting offers. Globex probed into the 3310 handle and yesterday, RTE CASH took out the 3330 and just kept on running.
I admit, sometimes it’s hard to understand Wyckoff and WB’s hidden clock but when you do it will give you an edge.
Looking Forward Friday, October 30, 2020
This day ends the cycle and ends the week and ends the trading for the month and ends the Daylight Savings time. What does all that mean, Wyckoff? Well, the PEONS UK close at 11:30 will be out of synch and so will the clock. November elections will be Tuesday. Most trading firms will be on Full Margin. Some traders will step back and watch the 1 by 1’s and 2 by 2’s when it happens.
I’ve been on the bearish part of the cycle. And of course, it turned yesterday. So today may be aberrant.
Bulls first need to reclaim the open from Wednesday’s 3397. That would be a good start. Then the 3433 to get the ball rolling for a Nov 3 red wave?
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 70 points Monday, 16 points Tuesday, 50 points Wednesday, and 15 points Thursday. Total for the week 151 points, that would be $7,550 on 1 lot and $22,650 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe.
Friday, October 30
In the Tradechat Room
The close yesterday was all about earnings after the close. We traded mostly sideways and the MiM flipped from a weak buy to a sell and at the 15:55 candle sold off 10 points although there was nothing really on the MOCs to trigger it.
It should be clear to everyone that co-existing with the virus is necessary to keep the world economies growing and 7 billion people fed on a daily basis. To do that we need testing, evaluation, and response. The tighter and more prevalent we can make that process the easier and safer it will be to move through this novel experience.
Florida is news coverage 24/7 now, but it is also a unique state in that on Sept. 25th they moved into phase 3 which as far as I read and understand is basically fully open for business. Full bars/clubs/gyms …. Florida did not participate in the spring fling but what a leader in our summer frolic peaking out at about 200 deaths a day. Nationally, we are fully into the back to school wave which is just starting to show up in Florida’s daily new cases and perhaps new hospital admissions. They are over a month into fully open and there has been no growth like this summer’s. I am not sure Florida has the test-evaluate-respond piece in place to pull off a successful relaunch but we will check-in.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks! Stay home! Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
Crude finally broke out of its trading range.
We were looking for a sell signal and gave yesterday in the Global Macro Technical Thoughts a downside target of 33.80.
This morning the low was 34.93.
A close above 37.05 cancels the sell signal.
(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session
(ESH20:CME) Day Session
Opening Print: 3268.75
S&P 500 Futures RECAP – Trade Date 10/29/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Globex and Daily Chart
S&P 500 Futures:Buyers Break 3 Day Losing Streak
After trading in a 45.50-handle range that went sideways in the overnight session, the S&P 500 futures opened Thursday’s regular session at 3268.75, down three ticks on the day, and in the opening minutes went on to the daily low of 3250.25 before early buyers came in pushing the index futures higher throughout the morning making a high of 3298.25.
Then, in the noon hour, the S&P rally continued as the ES would push up to a daily high of 3333.75, just after 1:30 CT, up 83.50 from the morning low. From there, buying would stall out and the markets would sell off into the close, making an afternoon low of 3288.75 before settling the day at 3293.50, up 24.00 handles or +0.75% on total volume of 1.70 million.
In terms of price action, it was all about buying the low made on the open and then selling the mid-afternoon high of day.
Tech Earning Crusher
Sometimes good earnings get sold and that was the case yesterday. The ES, YM and NQ all ripped higher throughout yesterday’s trading session and got walloped after the 3 o’clock earnings were released. I think there is a high level of uneasiness about the election and Covid19 and the election and it showed up in the overall price action when the markets sailed lower. I’m in Chicago and new lockdowns and the upcoming election have businesses boarding up again. Our view today is that we could see more selling. I can’t rule out a rally after the open but I don’t think it will last. With the election only 5 days away and the potential for an abundance of headlines over the weekend risk should increase. Get ready for another big day of rips and dips.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.