The day opened at the 3555 or so handle. Job’s number came out. It was a dud. Interesting how the market/people quickly forget. Yes, the virus numbers are up. They are up in hospitals. I would like to see the same bed occupancy from last year. Just as same-store sales. I guess that’s thinking too much. I would also like to see population density compared to total beds in the hospital. Just to get a good feel for the numbers. As one trader in the IMPRO chat said:
IMPRO: [TRADE] :(10:23:23 AM) : City of San Francisco banned inside eating again because of hospitalization rate increased +5.8% overnight. The fact is number of patient increased 38 to 40. Don’t get fooled by those politicians.
Enough said about that!
After the open, I saw buying around the 3548 handle. I had 3544 as a good level. Yes, I was thinking more selling would go on. We got a rally to 3562 and change where supply started to enter in again. Yes, we were range-bound!
By 10:30 price had drifted back down to the pivot/opening of 3555 with J. Powell getting ready to go hot on the mike at the 11:00 marker. And then the sell-off happened. Price probed into the 3565 (yes I had 69) and just fell apart!
By 2:30 it was trading 3520 with eyes for lower lows. Selling just overcame the late bulls…
The low dipped down to 3513 and then a rally ended the day with increasing volume and a volume spike at 3534 handle. Globex dipped down to the 3518 and currently trading around the 3540 handle.
Looking Forward Friday, November 13, 2020
Price is trying to recover from the big spike from Monday. Sure, supply hit it at the top at the opening print but that’s what any professional would have done. So what are we waiting on? Politics? Stimulus checks? Citywide lockdowns?
This first year of this decade has been one of uncertainty, mayhem, chaos. And that was just the first three months. Most ancient cultures just sacrificed virgins. In 2020 we’ve seemed to have sacrificed everything but virgins. Our freedom, personal sovereignty, and the right to breathe clean, exhaust-free air come to mind. Even my mom has started to notice there is a change in the world… Yes, Toto, we are not in Kansas anymore but carry on my wayward son we must, cause there will be peace when we are done…
The question might be: “If Monday started with a bang will Friday end with a bust?”
By my eye, I did not see any real substantial buying on the dip to 3513 yesterday. We seem to be holding in a resting spell which way it works out? I’d say we still need to test Monday’s highs. A lot of traders are focusing on what the current president will or will not do this weekend.
I don’t have a dog in that fight. I don’t see the market selling off either way. We’ve already overcome the shock of the virus. And trading above the February levels. Happy days are here again for one party or the other party. I don’t think that is shaping the market.
It just looks like getting the weak bulls out of their positions so old daddy bull can step in.
Sure there is going to be vaccine news and earnings releases with the stay at home stocks seeing some selling. I don’t see any more riots and burning the cities down. No matter what the outcome. The nation has started to heal and that is the message in the GAP commercials and the narrative in the media.
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 23 points Monday, 51 points Tuesday, 16 points Wednesday, and 0 points Thursday. Total for the week 90 points, that would be $4,500 on 1 lot and $13,500 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe.
In the Tradechat Room
A nice MIM trade set up yesterday with a positive growing MiM and an indication that the symbol count was very high, hitting the 80% number in some time slots. The buying was real as told via the 15:50 reveal candle when the MOC orders are locked and 70% of the symbols with imbalances had buy imbalance. It was a wholesale buying across the board with almost all sectors having a buy imbalance.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Checking in on the world as cases are making top-line news. We are now averaging about 577K new positive tests a day and 8.4K deaths. Both are new highs since the pandemic started. There is a slowing of pace on the new cases and we see that some of the growth in new cases in the EU are starting to flatten. The USA is about 1.1K of the 8.4K cases a day right now.
Wear your masks!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3574.50||Opening Print: 3557.00|
|Low: 3538.25||High 3565.25|
|Volume: 275,000||Low: 3513.00|
|ES Settlement 3538.75|
|Total Volume 1.65M|
S&P 500 Futures RECAP – Trade Date 11/12/2020
Biggest Losing Day In November
After trading in a 36.25-handle overnight range leaning lower, the S&P 500 futures opened Thursday’s regular session at 3557.00, down 16.25 handles, and traded to an early low of 3547.25 before rallying in a grinding fashion up to the daily high of 3565.25 around 10:15 CT. From there the index would reverse, leading to a sell-off that would push down to a morning low of 3525.50 just before noon.
The selling continued into the early afternoon with the ES printing 3520.00 at 12:30 before rallying to an afternoon high of 3539.25 just after 1:00. From there the S&Ps would again sell into the final hour of the day, making a daily low of 3513.00 at 3:15, down 60.25 handles on the day. In the closing minutes, a rush of buying pushed the benchmark equity futures up to settle at 3538.75, down 29.25 handles or -0.82%.
In terms of price action, the real trade went to those who faded the midmorning rally which lead to a 52.00 handle sell-off. In terms of volume, there was a moderate 1.65 million contracts traded.
PitBull: Thursday/Friday Low The Week Before the November Expiration
The weakness showed back up again yesterday but so did the late-day rally. I’m trying to keep this simple, stupid. Overall I think the ES wants to rally but there are several stumbling blocks in the ES and NQs path and the big one right now is COVID19. The US reported another day of new record cases and Chicago Mayor Lightfoot announced a 3-week stay at home order and the governor mentioned it could end up a ‘lockdown’. Mark my words: COVID19 resurgence will be a problem at some point. In the meantime, it seems to be business as usual, some type of rally and failure then late day rip. Our lean, the ES traded down to 3518.00 on Globex last night. It seems to me that the ES has been the underperformer. It seems like it can rally, once the NQ has established that it’s moving higher the ES quickly plays catch-up. If you follow the pattern there should be some type of early rally and pull back which we would be looking to buy. After the rally, it’s possible the ES could sell off again but if the ES holds its earlier lows I would expect higher prices throughout the middle of the day and… a late Friday RIP!!!! 3480-3500 is still good support.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading lookin floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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