I had S4H, so we were looking for the spill to be up. Fair value was -11.31 but on the opening print it spiked to -25.7, that tells you big money is in the fray for the day. It had the makings of a great day! Price opened just under the low of the previous day as opening balance offered down to find the spill seal at 9:45 marker. 12 min down 9:33 3219 to 9:42 3199 handle. I had, as a level… (that was the low of the day).
The following up move to the 9:51 marker 3228 handle was responded with SPY 9:45 320.205 250K, 9:54 322.58 250K, and 9:55 322.46 192K as price found the low and close of the previous day. You could see some supply entering but the day was young! 12 minutes down to check the close and low of the previous day and then the price ripped up to 3240 handle.
For the nontraders, a low of 3199 up to 3240 could have printed you $2K profit before commissions and slippage. I was looking for price to move higher after the 10:00 marker, which it did. That was a big level in real time CASH/Emini from the previous day Wednesday, Sep 23 (Autumn Equinox day).
I also mentioned the Bulls’ wants and needs in the PROS and NUMBASH.
The tell was the second buying wave of 12 minutes up taking out the first selling wave down. Yes, it was an S4H day, too. That was the confirmation my subscribers were looking for. We had a spring from the Globex low and an aggressive move up (sign of strength) on increasing volume to find the Globex high. I made a video that talked about it for my subscribers to the AM TURN.
I’ll give you a peak, it’s a little longer than most. I reward you at the end with a PDF download of a course I’m writing “Trading the Emini using the lens of Wyckoff and the eyes of WB”. It’s free for now, so you might want to take a look before it’s not!
As J. Powell got hot on the mike some weaker groups had gapped down and were testing the low, if not the close, trading inside their previous day. The question on my mind (if and when) they get strong?
I follow 21 other custom groups and yes they all responded the same. The market was in lockstep with each trader and each security. As the 3240 handle started to see checking by the Composite Man (it’s in the FREE PDF when you watch the video) FANGS were seeing some supply as rounding over occurred at the center time 10:30 marker.
That gives you validation the cycle is in sync with price.
Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL) seemed to show the most selling as ticks turned down to -767 as the price touched 3229 handle down from 3240 morning high.
Bigger picture 60 minutes up to as a buying wave. The following selling wave was aggressive for 10 minutes and price lost just over half of it’s gains finding a bid at 3212 handle. This was close to the level where at 9:46 an aggressive volume came in 9.2K on the one minute bar. (3212 was also the opening print).
By 10:46 the Composite Man was defending the level indicated by a higher volume 10K as price tested the 3225 handle. It was the Bulls day to lose or as WB would have said; “Soap to drop!”
As price crossed, the AM TURN window closed as the second buying wave failed in comparison to the flirt with just 18 points in 20 minutes compared to 45 points in 37 minutes. As the lunch window came into focus by my eye at least, you could see the Composite Man (you really want to see that video) was looking to sell some more at higher highs.
In the PROS and NUMBAHAS I gave:
Bulls: needs to reclaim the 3240 handle. Want to regain just past the 3271 handle.
Bears: needs to reclaim the 3182 handle. Want to regain just past the 3174 handle.
As the needs and wants. The lunch high pegged the 3268 handle on reduced volume. That indicates price should drift back down to find the mid-pm low. It was more of a lurch and less of a drift. The late bulls were full up and unable to absorb the supply entering into the market.
Bigger Picture: from the dip down let’s say at 10:00 marker 3198 handle (yea I got that) up to 13:50 marker 3268 handle was 70 handles (points) in 259 minutes or four hours and change. If you looked at a 30-minute bar (I look at other times) you will see that last bar some might call a fib squat. Wyckoff called it a shortening of the upward thrusts. The volume was low, 108K compared to 286K, 210K, 164K, 130K, 144K, 142K, and then 108K. That is telling you a turn is near.
Price was bumping up against the Globex opening gap up on Sep 22, 2:14 3269.50 handle. Coming off that you see 101K down to the mid-pm low of 3243 handle. Supply took over as Algos started hitting bids and price lost the gains while closing weak.
Looking Forward Friday, September 25, 2020
As I stated in my supposition above, by my eye I’m seeing the Composite Man checking the rally with selling in all groups, securities and sectors. And the closing print confirms it. The question is if price gets back up to yesterday’s Sep 24 lunch high of 3268 is the Composite Man willing to lift the offers to take it higher?
Will volume come and take out those offers and take price higher on increasing volume? If so, will the bulls have eyes for the 3319 and higher? In this time of Social Unrest, the market needs a hero. In spite of the deaths that happened in the past few weeks all eyes will be looking toward November.
As I stated last week corporate America is getting shored up for the holiday season. The news is polarizing as the announcers are getting closer together each week. Will Trump use the vaccine as a Hail Mary?
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 14 points Monday, 67 points Tuesday, 21 points Wednesday, and 35 points Thursday. Total for the week 137 points, that would be $6,850 on 1 lot and $20,550 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe.
In the Tradechat Room
Another sell of 1.4B on the MOC set up another 10 point decline in the 13:50 candle.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Our COVID chart today is on testing. It is essential that we reduce that delay between infection and results if we want to co-mingle in a COVID world. While the USA is top in testing and testing/1000, our caseload demands more testing. Large testing numbers with low positivity rate will lead to better containment. Australia leads the world at this point. We are getting better but a have a long way to go.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3231.25||Opening Print: 3208.25|
|Low: 3199.50||High 3268.25|
|Volume: 250,000||Low: 3198.00|
|ES Settlement 3238.00|
|Total Volume 2.2 M|
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 09/24/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
S&P 500 Futures: Bulls Fail To Hold The Morning Rally
After trading lower in the overnight session to just below 3200.00, the S&P 500 futures opened Thursday’s regular trading hours at 3208.25, down 23.50 handles and bottomed out at 3198.00 at 8:45 CT. Then the ES began to rally up to 3246.50 for an early morning high, then after a higher low at 3212.50 for the midmorning low, again rallied through the rest of the morning up to 3253.25 for the late morning high, then to 3268.25 for a noon high of day, 70.25 handles off the lows.
The afternoon would lean toward selling as the midmorning low printed at 3243.00, then after a 13.00 handle rally, the ES would sell into the close, trading down to 3219.00 in the final half-hour of the day before settling at 3238.00, up 6.25 handles or +0.19%.
Total volume was a strong 2.2 million contracts. Price action belonged to the bulls in the morning who kept buying every pullback, then favored the bears in the afternoon who kept selling every rally.
No Rest For The Weary
Seven months into the COVID19 pandemic and 39 days to the presidential election the stock market is unravelling. As the stock market heads into the end of the third quarter warning lights are flashing. I am sure that by the middle of October things will get to a fever pitch. The free ride the buyers got when the #ES dropped over 30% and the Nasdaq dropped 35% is already taking a ride south and when the president or Biden ask for a recount the gains will disappear.
Our view, sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks and look for a late Friday RIP. The #ES and #NQ are overdue for a rip, I just don’t think they will hold. There is no rest for the weary.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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