For the most part, it was a FED day yesterday. The day before, Wednesday, we as some traders did who tried to scalp that strong buying trend, had 0urr stops taken out. It was crazy!
Yesterday, J. Powel released his new plan. At first, the bonds did not like it. And then they did not like it some more. CASH and Emini were mixed. And then, of course, they checked the high, 3493 (we got back yesterday’s loss at that level). Then checked the low 3465 handle. The day ended close to the high of the day.
Looking Forward Friday, August 28, 2020
Here’s what I said last week:
Here’s what I say this week:
It’s still the same hope and prayer. Now, the FANG securities are becoming intertwined in all aspects of the market. AAPL stock split, has caused tech indexes to get recomputed. The Dow and the Emini just to name a few. It’s still a strong buying trend.
Last Friday we were trading just under 3400 and this Friday, 3504. Yea, it’s going to be like that!
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 24 points Monday, 10 points Tuesday, -12 points Wednesday, and 21 points Thursday. Total for the week 43 points, that would be $2,150 on 1 lot and $6,450 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that has crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe.
In the Tradechat Room
The MiM turned bearish at 15;10 but the market did not follow until 15:30 when the MiM was flashing -445. The 15:50 reveal was 1.7B to sell which sold off above 3 points on the 1-minute bar.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Texas stalled, California moved slightly lower, and Florida is losing downside pace but improving. A concern for NY as they put in 791 new cases yesterday which was almost 200 over their over/under number. Watch today for a number above 800 to confirm a possible upside trend shift.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M) looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Only California came in under their O/U number making a slight improvement but still not below that 120 we want to see. Florida and Texas both kicked a bit higher. Today’s O/U for Florida will be difficult to beat at 118. Texas should have an easier time coming in under their 258.
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for today. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
|Florida||4,555 / 3,269||119 / 139||4,684||118|
|Texas||5,303 / 5,600||234 / 265||5,021||258|
|California||5,920 / 4,430||163 / 143||5,585||135|
|New York||601 / 791||5 / 4||709||3|
Use today’s numbers to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3491.00||Opening Print: 3494.50|
|Low: 3468.50||High 3498.25|
|Volume: 280,000||Low: 3464.75|
|ES Settlement 3485.00|
|Total Volume 1.8 Milliion|
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 08/27/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
Following a sideways overnight session, the S&P 500 futures pushed higher just before Thursday’s open, printing 3484.50, up 4.25 handles, sold down to a 3473.50 morning low, rallied 20.75 handles to 3494.25, and then sold off 19.50 handles to make a higher low of 3474.25, and then rallied once again, all in less than an hour. The markets would continue to rally to a 3498.25 high of day just after 10:00 and then dropped to 3485.00 before making a late morning high of 3498.00.
After the retest failure of the highs, the ES fell hard, dropping 33.50 handles within an hour, making the low of day, 3464.75, at noon. Midday, the futures rallied until 2:30 and hit an afternoon high of 3496.25 when for the second time in the day, the S&P failed to make a new high. Late in the day the index futures fell down to 3480.00 before settling at 3485.00, up 4.75 handles or +.12%.
It was a strange day. In terms of volume, it was a solid 1.6 million contracts traded. For a day that ended sideways, the price action was unique, there were 8 moves of 10 handles or more. Those that sold the midmorning high and/or bought the midday low were the big winners.
T+ 2 and #ES 2909.50
T + 2 is the end of the month process where the big investment firms mark up the winners and sell the losing stocks. Clearly yesterday was the first day of that process and today is the second day. After selling off nearly 35 handles from its early high, the ES could not have looked worse but the daily pattern of selling off early and finding a mid-morning low showed up again pushing the futures back up to the 3494 level late then pulling back on the close. It’s 6:15 Friday morning and the ES is up 12 handles, 3497.25, with a 3509.50 high. It has been a non-stop rally that has had no let-up. Over a week ago I made some projections; ES 3550 and NQ 13,800, and I still think both are valid.
Our view, there is a shocking stat that says when the S&P is up 5+ % in August, September falls the equivalent. I am not sure about that but September and October are ‘historically known’ for their crashes. Our lean, while selling the rallies has had some minor success, buying the pullback has been the ‘money trade’ and I don’t think this is going to change today or next week. You can sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks …. or just be patient and buy weakness.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.