SO much to say. I’ll sum it up…It is an election year!
I remember the big one, 2008 with Obama and McCain, I was at that one. Not that I’m a Democrat but it was in Denver. I went downtown and hung around. I met many people. One man owned a few bars in Texas. He wanted me to fly down to Texas and analyze his operations.
Another man was the head of Air Force One security and as we were talking, I noticed folks lining up to take selfies of still life-sized standing images of Obama and McCain. McCain just did not feel right. I felt he was too short. And if he stood still in real life he would be taller. So I Measured the distance between the pupils of his eyes compared to Obama. It’s called the Pupillary Distance. Obama was 3 inches, McCain was 2 you do the math?
Sure, they did not vote on the package. I’m not thinking the average
Joe is going to get another swing at the bat for $1,200 payout for wearing a mask?
I was surprised to find that Nancy was able to find $25 Billion to help the U.S. The Post Office send out ballots to defend the election but could not find just 8 Percent of that $2 Billion to protect the people who vote?
No one’s talking about that?
The market. The Market knew. And the Market Knows. We just needed a catalyst. In the AM TURN, I was telling my subscribers “Big Money” was selling and that’s just what they did the day before and days before the Fed minutes Wednesday.
Yesterday, they got themselves in an oversold position and started buying at the 7:00, 8:00, and 9:00 marker. And on the open, a lot of volume came in the first rally was to Floor Trader Daily Pivot. And then a push through to get some more. I’ve been seeing Micro crashes the past few weeks. I made a video called Understand WB’s Clock Turn by turn. Had you used the clock you would have been able to time your entry and exit to ultimate efficiency. That was the day when my subscribers extracted 25 on the long and 20 on the short side. Total 55 points extracted out of the market that day. Be sure and watch it.
Check it out if you like. It’s only 18 minutes, not the best 18 minutes of your life, but perhaps, the best 18 minutes of your day today. You’ll never know unless you click below…
Looking Forward Friday, August 21, 2020
Ok, apparently they were just kidding when they sold the market off after the FED Minutes. We recovered all that and more and turned a bounce into a leg. Not that I follow it but in the IMPRO CHAT we talked about how we lost the 200 ma on the 60 minutes yesterday and gained it back today.
Most traders and especially my friend The Wall Street Wizard, a retired Morgan Stanley Institutional Trader, is concerned about what is holding this market up? We talked about it yesterday, he’s more fundamental and I’m more technical.
My take was hope. Hope that somehow, someway, they will find a vaccine that works. The damage has been done. Commercial Real Estate will never be the same. Lower Manhattan is a ghost town. The renters blew out, without paying the rent and hotdog stands have disappeared.
The market is back where it once was before. Yes, I’m thinking we’ll have another leg up past 3400, that and more. Say what you will, but it is a strong technical position. For whatever reason, the bulls have managed to get the price back up to where it was before.
As for today, perhaps a tighter trading range holding the gains from yesterday.
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 4 points Monday, 55 points Tuesday, 6 points Wednesday, and 35 points Thursday. Total for the week 100 points, that would be $5,000 on 1 lot and $15,000 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe
In the Tradechat Room
A nice run up into the MIM reveal set up a decent 5-point trade as the MOC moved from a predicted -904M to an actual -1.8B. Our 15:55 candel did a retrace as we tapped out sideways for the day.
estions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Florida looks good as it reaches out to touch the 4K line. Texas stalled and Cali trying to get the downside momentum build like Florida. All three states beat their over/under numbers for new daily cases by being below their numbers from 7 days ago.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M) looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Daily deaths are not behaving like the new cases as they have been very slow to show any real down-side progress. Florida and Texas did come in below their under numbers, but both just by a little. California came in 3 above creating a stall. Today’s numbers for all 3 states should add some downside if it is really there.
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for today. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
|Florida||6,236 / 4,555||149 / 119||6,148||229|
|Texas||6,755 / 5,303||255 / 234||7,018||313|
|California||7,085 / 5,920||160 / 163||7,934||188|
|New York||737 / 601||10 / 5||7278||4|
Use today’s numbers to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3372.00||Opening Print: 3352.75|
|Low: 3344.75||High 3387.00|
|Volume: 230,000||Low: 3351.25|
|ES Settlement 3381.000|
|Total Volume 1.34 Milliion|
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 08/20/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
After trading down to 3344.75, down 27.75 handles in the overnight session, the futures rallied to 3368.00 before opening the regular trading hours at 3352.75, down 19.75 handles. The low was made on the open at 3351.25 and buyers took over early in the session and never let up. The morning high came in at 3377.75 just before noon, and after a midday pullback to 3370.50, the rally continued late into the session as the ES printed 3387.00 just before the close, a 43.25 handle rally off the overnight lows, and a move of 34.25 above the open. The index settled the day at 3381.00 up 8.50 handles on the day or + 0.17%.
In terms of the overall day, it was about buying the open and holding. If you missed the open then there were only three 7-8 handle pullbacks to buy throughout the day. In terms of volume, a very light 1.17 million contracts traded.
Up, Down And All Around
It’s Friday and it’s the August options expiration. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the ‘August expiration day has been less bullish lately, down 7 of the last 9 and down 531 points or -3.1% in 2015. And the week after the expiration has been mixed, down 7 of the last 14 occasions. But you know what? This year is not at all like previous years. I am not going to do a big view, I’m beat from all the dips and rips. Our view is that the ES trades 3400+ today. You can sell the early rallies and buy weakness or just be patient and buy the pullbacks, If this is correct there could be a LATE FRIDAY RIP.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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