Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:
|S&P 500 (ESM18:CME)||2627.50||-24.75||-0.94%|
|Nasdaq 100 (NQM18:CME)||6633.50||-58.50||-0.88%|
|Russell 2000 (RTYM:CME)||1552.50||-0.40||-0.02%|
Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:
- In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp +0.65%, Hang Seng -1.34%, Nikkei -0.16%
- In Europe 11 out of 13 markets are trading lower: CAC -0.33%, DAX -0.39%, FTSE -0.14%
- Fair Value: S&P -2.65, NASDAQ +0.43, Dow -58.21
- Total Volume: 1.4 mil ESM & 1.15k SPM traded in the pit
Today’s Economic Calendar:
Thursday: Initial jobless claims (209,000 previously); Nonfarm productivity, first quarter (+0.9% expected; 0% previously); ISM non-manufacturing PMI, April (58 expected; 58.8 previously); Markit non-manufacturing PMI, April (54.4 previously).
S&P 500 Futures: #ES Early Drop. Rally And Dump As The Dollar Rips Late In the day
The second day of the Federal Reserve’s two day meeting was another tough day for the S&P 500 futures (ESM18:CME). On Globex, the ES initally rallied off Apple’s earnings, up to a high of 2658.50, and made a low at 2643.25. The first print off Wednesday mornings 8:30 bell came in at 2648.50. After the open, the ES rallied up to 2651.25 in the first three minutes of trade, and then sold off down to 2644.00, rallied and ‘double topped’ at 2648.00, and then bumped down to a new low at 2642.25.
Once the initial swings were over, the range started to tighten up. The futures rallied up to the vwap at 2649.25, sold off down to 2642.50, then made a few higher lows before trading up to the 2651.00 area. From there, the ES puked down to a new low at 2640.25. After the new low the ES traded back up to the 2648.25 at 11:28 ct., then popped back up to 2658.50 after the fed headlines hit the tape.
The next move was back down to 2645.00, followed by a bounce up to 2650.25, and then another break down to new lows at 2636.76 as the MiM went from $400 million to sell to $600 mil to sell. As the MiM continued to increase to sell $777 mil, the ES sold off down to 2634.75. On the 2:45 cash imbalance reveal, the futures traded 2632.25, then ES 2632.00 on the 3:00 cash close, and went on to settle near the low of the day at 2627.75, down -27.75 handle, or -1.03%.
In the end, you have to trade them how you see them. When the ES looks bad early in the day you have to be a buyer, and when they look good, you either have to take profits or try and sell the rallies. It’s a very two sided trade right now with no established trend.
Seasonal MACD Sell Signal Triggers – Trades to Make
From Stock Trader’s Almanac
As of yesterday’s close, both the slower moving MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are negative (arrows in charts below point to a crossover or negative histogram on the slower moving MACD used by our Seasonal Switching Strategy to issue a sell). At this time, we are issuing our official Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500. NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.